ISW: Russian offensive in Bakhmut area slowing down

In recent days, the advance of the Russian troops in Bakhmut area has slowed down, although it is still too early to say whether the Russian offensive and their efforts to capture the town have reached a peak.

“Russian milbloggers acknowledged that Ukrainian forces in the Bakhmut area have managed to slightly slow down the pace of the Russian advance around Bakhmut and its surrounding settlements, with one claiming that Ukrainian forces pushed back elements of the Wagner Group to positions they held days ago,” reads the latest report by the U.S. Institute for the Study of War.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian social media sources previously claimed that Ukrainian forces completely pushed Russian forces out of the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut around December 21.

“ISW has also assessed that Russian forces made slightly fewer overall advances in the Bakhmut area in November and December combined as compared to the month of October,” says the report.

The ISW analysts suppose that Russian forces will likely struggle to maintain the pace of their offensive operations in the Bakhmut area and may seek to initiate a tactical or operational pause.

At the same time, the ISW recalled the attempts of Russian troops to capture Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, which continued from the spring and ended with the occupation of Lysychansk at the beginning of July. However, due to huge losses and exhaustion, the aggressor was unable to capture neighboring Siversk in the east or Slovyansk in the northeast.

“The Russian military’s fixation with conducting a highly attritional campaign to achieve the tactical objectives of capturing Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk ultimately undermined the Russian military’s ability to achieve its larger operational objective to envelop Ukrainian forces in a cauldron along the E40 highway and eventually drive to Donetsk Oblast’s western administrative borders. Russia’s relentless and costly push on Bakhmut may also degrade Russia’s ability to pursue long-term objectives in the Donbas theater,” the report reads.

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