British intelligence analyses how rising temperatures in spring will influence situation at front

As Ukrainian forces continue the defense of Bakhmut, Donetsk region, rising temperatures are now creating the muddy conditions known in Ukrainian as ‘bezdorizhzhia’, limiting cross country movement (CCM).

The UK Ministry of Defense said this in its latest intelligence update published on Twitter, Ukrinform reports.

It is noted that poor CCM typically provides some military advantage to defending forces.

“Daytime soil temperatures have risen and are now largely above freezing. As experienced since mid-February 2023, overnight freeze and daytime thaw remains likely until next week,” the report says.

Forecast warmer than average conditions for the remainder of winter and spring will further reduce CCM, the ministry noted.

“It is almost certain that by late-March, CCM will be at its worst following the final thaw. This will add further friction to ground operations and hamper the off-road movement of heavier armoured vehicles, especially over churned-up ground in the Bakhmut sector,” the report says.