UK intelligence doubts Russian troops will be able to create capable mobile reserve

British intelligence believes that the Russian Combined Grouping of Forces (CGF) in Ukraine is unlikely to be able to create a capable mobile reserve to respond to emerging challenges.

The UK Ministry of Defense said this in an intelligence update published on Twitter, according to Ukrinform.

According to British analysts, on paper, the Russian Combined Grouping of Forces in Ukraine is similarly organized to the invasion force of 446 days ago.

"It still likely consists of over 200,000 personnel organized into around 70 combat regiments and brigades divided into five Groups of Forces," the intelligence said.

According to the update, CGF still struggles with limited freedom to conduct air operations.

At the same time, British intelligence noted that in February 2022 the grouping consisted of professional soldiers; was largely equipped with reasonably modern vehicles; and had been regularly exercised, aspiring to complex, joint operations.

Now the force is mostly poorly trained mobilized reservists and increasingly reliant on antiquated equipment, with many of its units severely under-strength. It routinely only conducts very simple, infantry-based operations.

"Critically, it is unlikely that CGF has been able to generate a large, capable, mobile reserve to respond to emerging operational challenges. It is unlikely to be an organization which will effectively cohere large-scale military effect along the 1,200 km front line under stress," the update reads.