Putin lies about "terrible losses" of Armed Forces of Ukraine: does anyone believe it?

Even on the 16th month of the Great War, Russian propaganda is influencing some Ukrainians. The numbers are not critical, but something must be done about it

During a meeting with war correspondents on June 13, Putin boasted about the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He said that over the past week, Russia's losses were "ten times lower" than Ukraine's. He did not give any specific figures. At the same time, he said that the Ukrainian counteroffensive continues. And that our military has allegedly lost 25-30% of the equipment supplied by our Western partners. It is strange that the international criminal did not say that this equipment broke down on the way to Ukraine. Or that the Russian army destroyed not 25-30%, but 250-300% of the vehicles we received...

It is not news that Putin is lying. And we will prove it. Another thing is that a part of Ukrainian society is the object of these lies, which, unfortunately, sometimes achieve their goal of demotivating. Especially now, when the key topic is the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. People often lack news from the frontline from Ukrainian sources. The reason is clear: the regime of information silence. Instead, they get their news from Russian and anonymous sources. And Russia, of course, takes advantage of this. The Russian Federation is trying to use this information vacuum to make Ukrainians doubt, to ask public questions... It is clear that in the twenty-first century there are no tight borders between information fields, but we must fight, counteract enemy propaganda. How? This is the key question today.

UP TO 20% OF UKRAINIANS ARE INFLUENCED BY RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA TO VARYING DEGREES

The figure is not critical. Moreover, as the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) told Ukrinform, it is extremely optimistic. Nevertheless, even in the sixteenth month of the Great War, some citizens are exposed to hostile information influence.

"There is no specific sociology on this issue, but we can measure the impact of Russian propaganda and lies through the results of our surveys. In February 2019, KIIS asked respondents the question: "Do you think you are able to distinguish quality information from disinformation and fakes?" 52% of respondents said they could distinguish between quality information, 26% considered themselves incapable of doing so, and 22% were undecided," comments Anton Hrushetsky, Executive Director of KIIS.

In December 2022, researchers asked this question again to analyze the dynamics. What has changed? 78% of respondents are confident that they are able to distinguish quality information from disinformation and fakes, 16% are not, and 7% find it difficult to say.

The next sociological section also deals with specifics.

"What are we talking about? Well, for example, until February 24, 2022, Moscow was actively promoting the narrative that Russia was not at war with Ukraine in Donbas, but that there was a civil war there. So, we asked respondents a question about what they really thought was happening in the East..... We realized that people who chose "civil conflict" were obviously influenced by enemy propaganda. But all this was before the large-scale invasion of Russia," says the KIIS Executive Director. - "How is it now? "Last year we had several waves (in September and December 2022) when we asked similar questions. KIIS experts researched what Russian propaganda is most actively promoting (the so-called "split narratives") and tried to understand whether Ukrainians share them."

Mr. Hrushetsky named three such "narratives" and the extent to which they have "gone down" with Ukrainians.

№1. "There is a serious conflict between the political and military leadership of Ukraine"

Last September, 14% of Ukrainians believed that there was a serious conflict between the political and military leadership. In December, the share of such respondents dropped to 10%. Accordingly, the percentage of those convinced that Ukraine's political leadership and military command act in a coordinated manner as a team with a common goal of winning the war was as follows: in September - 71%, in December - 77%.

№2. "The Ukrainian government is ready to make unacceptable compromises with Russia"

Between September and December 2022, the number of people who believe that the government is ready to make unacceptable compromises with Russia increased slightly (from 5% to 7%), but the vast majority (84%) of Ukrainians still believe that the government is not going to make unacceptable compromises with Russia (87% in September).

№3. "The West is tired of Ukraine and wants Ukraine to negotiate with Russia"

As of December 2022, only 15% of Ukrainians believe that the West is getting tired of Ukraine and wants Ukraine to negotiate with Russia (the same number was in September). At the same time, the number of those who believe that the West continues to support Ukraine and expects the war to end on terms acceptable to Ukraine has increased from 73% to 76%.

"What can we conclude? We see that up to 20% of Ukrainians are still influenced by Russian propaganda, but the vast majority of Ukrainians unitedly reject it and do not accept it. And this gives us a rather optimistic picture, especially given the realities we live in today, how many resources the enemy has been investing in spreading fakes and disinformation since 2014. 80% of those who reject this is an excellent indicator. It can grow, it can fall a little depending on the circumstances. In the coming weeks, we will see the continuation of the counteroffensive, the NATO summit in Vilnius... But in general, I think this indicator will remain at a fairly high level," reassures Anton Hrushetsky.

A FOOL IS RICH IN THOUGHT: PUTIN'S STATEMENTS ABOUT UKRAINE'S LOSSES ARE COMPLETE NONSENSE

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry has already responded to Putin's nonsense. According to Deputy Minister Hanna Maliar, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered several times fewer losses during the offensive than the occupiers, despite the Russians' lies to the contrary.

"If we talk about the ratio of casualties in the two operationally strategic groups of troops that are currently advancing, the figures for the past week are as follows: in 'Khortytsia' (where the Bakhmut direction is located), the enemy has 8.73 times more casualties, almost nine times; in 'Tavria' (where the Zaporizhzhia and Berdiansk directions are located), the enemy has 5.3 times more casualties than we do," Ms. Maliar said.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, military observer of the Information Resistance group, on what the Russian dictator said: "The losses of the Russian occupiers since the beginning of June amount to more than 9,000 personnel. As of June 14, 139 tanks, 175 armored personnel carriers and 31 air defense systems were destroyed. For your understanding, the record was held in March 2022, when 45 occupiers' air defense missile system (ADMS) were destroyed. It looks like we are approaching a new record."

In general, the expert continues, such dynamics of enemy losses says a lot. But there are other signs of Russian lies.

"If the Russians really, as Putin says, did not suffer serious losses, then why pull to the 1st line of defense the forces that were in reserve, mainly on the 2nd and 3rd lines? In particular, in order to stop the advance of the Defense Forces of Ukraine down the bank of the Mokri Yaly River to the village of Staromlynivka and the village of Velyka Novosilka [Volnovakha district, Donetsk region], the occupation command pulled the 127th Motorized Infantry Division out of its "comfortable" trenches. Why? Because they lacked resources. And why not enough? Apparently, because the losses are high," says the military analyst.

The 58th Army of the Russian Federation also does not feel too comfortable in Zaporizhzhia. It needed additional resources from the 49th Army.

"From the Kherson region, the occupiers' command urgently began to pull forces into the Tokmak-Vasylivka-Melitopol triangle to strengthen the third line. Why is this happening? It seems that Russia has suffered significant losses over the past two weeks. Of course, Russian propagandists will not tell their fast food consumers this. Instead, they will tell you that the Ukrainian army suffered more than 50% of personnel losses as a result of the "failed" offensive, all Leopard 2 tanks were destroyed, Kyiv is in a panic, Biden is hysterical..." - Mr. Kovalenko ironizes.

His words are confirmed by the military who are fighting at the Tokmak and Volnovakha directions. But before that, let's quote a fake from Russian Defense Minister Shoigu on June 8: "At night, in the Zaporizhzhia direction, the 47th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, consisting of up to 1,500 people and 150 armored vehicles, tried to break through the defense. (...) The enemy was stopped and retreated with heavy losses. In the battle, the Ukrainian brigade lost 30 tanks, 11 infantry fighting vehicles and up to 350 people."

And this is the statement of the chief master sergeant of the 47th separate mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Markus, "Magur": "On the day when the Russians announced the "destruction of the 47th Brigade" and "350 dead", the brigade actually had 5 dead. This is the first thing. The second is about their losses: only yesterday [June 12] they brought more than 100 of their dead from this direction to Tokmak. Over the past few days, we have destroyed a dozen and a half of their tanks, two Soncepyoks [heavy flamethrower system]. I haven't even counted the number of their armored personnel carriers we destroyed. We are on the offensive, they are on the defense. And they are suffering losses many times greater than ours."

Details of the de-occupation of Neskuchne village from Serhiy Zherebylo, deputy commander of the 7th separate battalion "Arey" of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army of the 129th Brigade of the Territorial Defense Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (call sign "Kherson"): "The battle for Neskuchne lasted for almost two and a half days. It was the area of responsibility of the 60th motorized infantry brigade of the Russian army. Our guys showed courage and resilience. We have six dead. Can you estimate how many occupants were killed there? We did not count. But the prisoners told us that there were more than 200 of them in total. Without exaggeration, more than half of them stayed there forever."

Unfortunately, there are losses on our side. This is a fact. But clearly not ten times more than the occupiers.

"The Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched an offensive in a number of frontline areas. Because of this, losses among our military have increased. Moreover, due to the procrastination of our partners, we are moving to offensive operations with a minimal numerical advantage in artillery and multiple launch rocket systems. We do not have air dominance. But we are still attacking the enemy's equipped defenses. We have no other way out," says Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI".

According to him, in theory, the offensive side suffers losses 3 or even 9 times greater than the defensive side.

"Obviously, this is what his generals report to Putin. How else could it be? Ukrainians are advancing, and Russians are dying as if they were storming Bucha and Gostomel? It's not logical. But in fact, the losses of the invaders in our counteroffensive exceed the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Why? There are a number of reasons for this," the expert says.

First, Ukrainian commanders do not know what "meat assaults" are and do not want to know: "A new tactical school has emerged in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is fundamentally different from the Russian-Soviet "Zhukov meat grinder". The tactics of combat are changing."

Second, and more importantly, Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly fighting with Western equipment. Its main advantage is not so much its greater power, accuracy and range, although these are also very important characteristics, but the preservation of the crew's lives.

"After the first strikes of the Defense Forces in the south, the Russian propagandists were choking with delight: "We are burning Leopards and Bradleys," showing photos of a battle in which a detachment of one of the Armed Forces of Ukraine brigades was ambushed. "Yes, we lost at least one Leopard 2 tank and several Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. But it was the design features of these vehicles and the well-coordinated, panic-free work of the crews that saved the lives of the soldiers. Moreover, the guys really "put the heat" on the attackers. This proves that they have been trained in tactics and operation at the training grounds of NATO partners," emphasizes the military expert.

Many of the combat vehicles damaged in the battle are not irreversible losses, they will be restored and put back into action.

"Maintainability is another advantage of the new equipment. It's scary to imagine how the battle would have developed if soldiers on T-72 and BMP-2 had been ambushed. So there are losses. And they are heavy. But the enemy's losses are many times greater. And they are more afraid - we are walking on our land, and they are burrowing into someone else's," emphasized Pavlo Lakiychuk.

TO PROTECT NATIONAL SECURITY: CENSORSHIP AND COUNTER-PROPAGANDA ARE NEEDED IN TIMES OF WAR

A number of measures taken after 2014, such as the cessation of broadcasting of Russian TV channels, closing access to Russian social networks, closing pro-Russian TV channels in Ukraine, etc. However, as mentioned above, some people (up to 20%) are still subject to hostile influence. What to do about it, how to counteract it?

According to Oleksandr Kovalenko, in the context of a full-scale war, Western media standards, freedom of speech and thought are more about evil.

"There should be the strictest possible control over information, especially sensitive information. However, sometimes we should not forget about the "carrot" - some loyalty. Society is constantly in a state of psychological tension. And the enemy takes advantage of it."

The expert emphasizes that not only a "kinetic" war is being waged against Ukrainians, but also an information war. And there is not only the front, but also the rear, where Russia conducts its information and psychological operations.

"The pressure on the psyche is the best way to manipulate a person, to make him or her believe in certain destructive information," added Mr. Kovalenko.

That is why, he believes, without prejudice to what is happening, we should inform the society more, more accessible (and not just repeat, like a mantra, in daily reports from the front that "the enemy has focused on complete capture..." - Author).

"Any state censorship and propaganda is evil. But the loss of statehood and the subsequent total genocide of our people is an incomparably greater evil. Any state that wages an existential war implements military censorship. And this is right. This is what the United States, Great Britain and other democratic countries did during World War II. There is no other way to protect society from information and psychological special operations by the enemy and win the information war," says political strategist Dmytro Bachevsky.

"War is always a choice between bad and very bad. However, if we want to survive as a nation and a state, we "must be monolithic and adhere to a single line."

According to the expert, it would be advisable to create a unified information and analytical headquarters at the state level that would provide citizens with a balanced analysis and assessment of the situation at the front, in the economy, and in the international arena. In this way, Ukrainians could receive comprehensive information on issues of concern to them.

"The state should strengthen communication with society to the extent that security requirements allow. A lack of information always leads to rumors, speculation and panic. The only way to counteract this is to satisfy people's biological need for information that will give them a sense of security," says Mr. Bachevsky.

Oleksandr Kovalenko is convinced that the reason is also in people: "Let me remind you that we have quite a few good analysts, they are shown on television, they explain in an accessible and interesting way, and most importantly, without risks to national security. And you can get everything you need from what they say. So, a strictly official form of communication by law enforcement agencies is one thing, but there is also a pool of, let's say, unofficial speakers. Why does a certain part of society not listen to them, why does it consume information from Russian propagandists?"

According to the expert, there is a problem with critical thinking and the ability to do basic analysis: "Unfortunately, some Ukrainians often form their opinions based on emotions rather than cold calculation. It's easier and they are satisfied with it: to be under constant stress instead of restraining themselves from unnecessary emotions."

Myroslav Liskovych. Kyiv