Wagner Group’s rebellion to substantially damage Russian war effort in Ukraine – ISW

The Wagner Group’s mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin and rapid drive towards Moscow have exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and will likely substantially damage Putin’s government and the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

The relevant statement was made by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

“Prigozhin’s rebellion has illustrated that Russian forces lack reserves in many rear areas and almost certainly will degrade the morale of Russian personnel in Ukraine, knowledge that Ukrainian forces may use to adjust attempts at breaking through Russian defenses,” the report states.

The Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium. The Lukashenko-negotiated deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russia’s defense ministry.

“Suggestions that Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Kremlin’s response, and Lukashenko’s mediation were all staged by the Kremlin are absurd,” the ISW stressed.

The rebellion exposed the weakness of the Russian security forces and demonstrated Putin’s inability to use his forces in a timely manner to repel an internal threat and further eroded his monopoly on force.

According to the ISW, Wagner’s drive also showcased the degradation of Russia’s military reserves, which are almost entirely committed to fighting in Ukraine, as well as the dangers of reliance on inexperienced conscripts to defend Russia’s borders.

The ISW is not forecasting an imminent collapse of the Russian government but believes that Prigozhin’s rebellion and the resolution of the events of June 23 and 24 will likely substantially damage Putin’s government and the Russian war effort in Ukraine.