Wagner Group in Belarus poses no threat to Ukraine or Poland - ISW

There are no signs indicating the Wagner Group units deployed in Belarus have any heavy weapons necessary for mounting a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland.

This is stated in a report by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"Putin and Lukashenko also amplified information operations targeting the West. The leaders amplified their false claims that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has failed,” the report says. “Lukashenko and Putin also reiterated an information operation that the Wagner Group poses a threat to Poland."

Senior Western and Ukrainian leaders and ISWs continue to believe that it is too early to evaluate the Ukrainian counteroffensive, as Ukraine still has significant uncommitted prepared forces and retains the ability to launch decisive operations whenever and wherever it chooses…

"There is no indication that Wagner fighters in Belarus have the heavy weaponry necessary to mount a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland without significant rearmament, as it was a condition of the Putin-Lukashenko-Prigozhin deal ending the armed rebellion that Wagner surrender such weapons to the Russian Ministry of Defense," ISW noted.

Photo: Maxar Technologies

The Institute for the Study of War published a photo of the main Wagner base in Tsel, Osypovychi, which shows that the vehicles parked in and around the base are mostly hundreds of cars, small trucks and about 35 semi-trailers.

"Wagner forces in Belarus pose no military threat to Poland or Ukraine, for that matter, until and unless they are re-equipped with mechanized equipment," ISW analysts emphasized.

As reported, yesterday, July 23, the tenth convoy of Wagner forces arrived in Belarus.