UK intel explains why Russia intensifies missile attacks on southern Ukraine

Following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the Kremlin likely feels less politically constrained, and is attempting to strike targets in Odesa because it believes Ukraine is storing military assets in these areas.

The relevant statement was made by the Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom on Twitter, referring to the latest Defence Intelligence update, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

“Between August 2022 and June 2023, when the Black Sea Grain Initiative was still in force, Russia generally refrained from striking civil infrastructure in the southern ports.

Since Russia failed to renew the deal, the Kremlin likely feels less politically constrained, and is attempting to strike targets in Odesa because it believes Ukraine is storing military assets in these areas,” the report states.

Since July 18, 2023, Russia has conducted greater numbers of long-range strikes against Odesa and other areas of southern Ukraine. These attacks have featured an unusual number of AS-4 KITCHEN missiles, a 5.5 tonne weapon originally designed to destroy aircraft carriers, the UK Ministry of Defence noted.

Russian projectiles targeted several grain silos at Chornomorsk Port, south of Odesa, as well as the historic city centre.

On July 24, 2023, Russia extended one way attack drone strikes to the docks on the Danube River, approximately 200 metres from the Romanian border.

According to the UK intelligence, since the start of the war, Russia’s strike campaign has been characterised by poor intelligence and a dysfunctional targeting process.