UK intel predicts further actions of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet

Since suffering a series of strikes in August and September, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (BSF) has highly likely doubled down on its defensive and reactive posture.

The relevant statement was made by the Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom on the social media platform X, referring to the latest Defence Intelligence update, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

Russia relocated many of its prestige assets, including cruise missile capable ships and submarines, from Sevastopol to operating and basing areas further east, such as Novorossiysk.

Since July 2022, Ukraine has gained the initiative in the northwest Black Sea, forcing Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to defend itself from uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), uncrewed air vehicles (UAVs) and missile attacks, as well as special operations.

However, according to the UK intelligence, with notable and embarrassing exceptions, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet mostly continued to train, maintain and defend itself whilst launching cruise missiles into Ukraine. The analysts believe it can almost certainly continue to do so from the eastern Black Sea.

“Despite the BSF’s largely intact capabilities, there is only a realistic possibility of it using its conventional superiority in firepower to seize the initiative in the Western Black Sea,” the UK intelligence noted.

According to the analysts, the risk of further military losses and the dire political consequences of Russian naval forces overtly attacking merchant shipping would highly likely outweigh any gain from attempting to enforce a blockade of Ukrainian-bound trade.