British intelligence assesses Russia's chances of breakthrough toward Kupiansk-Lyman

Over the past two weeks, there has been a significant increase in Russian offensive activity in the Kupiansk-Lyman direction.

This was reported by the British Ministry of Defense on X (formerly Twitter) with reference to intelligence data, Ukrinform saw.

Russian shelling has intensified and elements of the Russian 6th and 25th Combined Arms Armies and the 1st Guards Tank Army have launched attacks, but with limited success, the review said.

It is highly likely that this activity is part of an ongoing Russian offensive being conducted on multiple axes in eastern Ukraine, British intelligence noted.

The review notes that the objective of Ground Forces on the Kupiansk-Lyman axis is probably to advance west of the Oskil River to create a buffer zone around Luhansk region.

"RGF have built up combat capacity in the Kupiansk-Lyman direction in recent months. However, Ukrainian forces retain a significant defensive presence on this axis and it is highly unlikely RGF will achieve a major operational breakthrough," intelligence analysts suggest.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, British intelligence in its previous overview said the Russian army had launched a coordinated offensive on Avdiivka, but due to slow progress and significant losses, they are unlikely to succeed in capturing the city in the short term.