Russian troops preparing for new wave of attacks on Avdiivka - ISW

Russian forces may be preparing to transition to infantry-led frontal assaults following heavy artillery preparation to compensate for heavy materiel losses in Avdiivka over the course of October.

That's according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrinform reports.

A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces near Avdiivka have largely slowed the pace of ground attacks north and south of Avdiivka in favor of heavy indirect fire against Ukrainian frontline positions and near rear areas.

Russian forces may be conducting an interdiction campaign against Ukrainian assets in the Avdiivka area, but this heavy fire is more likely air and artillery preparation for the battlefield ahead of another wave of Russian assaults.

Other milbloggers also characterized the current Russian operations as "preparatory support," presumably for later assaults.

Ukrainian Tavria Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun stated on October 30 that Russian forces are preparing to conduct "meat assaults" (colloquial jargon for infantry-led frontal assaults) near Avdiivka and are training "Storm-Z" assault units made largely of convict recruits for future assaults without equipment

ISW analysts believe that the current situation near Avdiivka is a microcosm of the Russian General Staff's wider failure to internalize and disseminate lessons learned by Russian forces during previous failed offensive efforts in Ukraine to other force groupings throughout the theater.

Shtupun earlier said that as of October 29, the Russians have lost 6,500 soldiers since the outset of their offensive on Avdiivka.