Russia likely to deploy to Ukraine S-400s from Kaliningrad to backfill recent losses - British intel

The unusual Russian air transport movements through November suggest that Russia has likely moved S-400 strategic air defense systems from the enclave of Kaliningrad to backfill recent losses on the Ukraine front.

The British Ministry of Defense reported this on X, referring to intelligence data, as seen by Ukrinform.

This follows an uptick in losses of S-400 (SA21) air defense systems Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine in late October 2023.

Russia views Kaliningrad, its westernmost outpost bordered on three sides by NATO member states, as one of its most strategically sensitive regions.

The fact that Russia's defense ministry appears willing to accept additional risk here highlights the overstretch the war has caused for some Russia’s key, modern capabilities, British intelligence said.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, Bellingcat investigators wrote in mid-November that Russia had likely transferred S-400 air defense systems from the Kaliningrad region to Rostov. The transfer coincided with an increase in the number of flights of Russian military cargo planes An-124 and Il-76 from Kaliningrad over the Baltic Sea toward Russia’s mainland. At the same time, while flying over Russia, the pilots would turn off their transponders that allow tracking the route and final destination.

On October 26, Russian media reported that three Russian S-400 launchers were destroyed in the temporarily occupied territory of Luhansk region, while Ukrainian sources reported additional losses of Russian air defense capabilities in Crimea.