Rotations so far keep Russian army away from exhaustion but things may change - ISW

Russia's ability to pull in new forces at a rate equal to its current losses likely gives the Russian army the ability to replenish units that the Russian command has withdrawn from the front line due to attrition, and later deploy them to the front.

That’s according to a report by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, seen by Ukrinform.

The pace of Russian rotations in Ukraine corresponds to the statements of the deputy head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence, Vadym Skibitskyi, who said Russia had concentrated the entire ground component of its forces in Ukraine. He added that this allows the invader to run rotations throughout the entire operational theater.

Russia's ability to conduct rotations at the operational level will likely allow Russian forces to maintain an overall pace of local offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the near term, but it is unclear whether Russia will be able to carry out effective rotations in the long term or in the event of a Russian or Ukrainian counteroffensive, the report said.

Experts note that Russian operational rotations generally reduce the exhaustion of the Russian army, which may eventually lead to the culmination in the shape of a counteroffensive. At the same time, according to analysts, Russia mostly attacks by deploying assault groups that do not require a large amount of equipment or a high level of training.

"The Russian force generation apparatus appears to be replenishing losses in Ukraine with poorly trained and relatively combat ineffective personnel whom the Russian command has deemed to be sufficient for routine attritional frontal assaults," the ISW wrote.

Analysts added that such assaults have not led to significant gains in Ukraine since early October 2023. It is unlikely that Russian forces will be able to continue attacks indefinitely in such a way as to turn tactical successes into operationally significant results.

As reported, Russia’s Ministry of Defense refused to limit to 12 months the term of service for the mobilized servicemen.