ISW analyzes Putin's statements on "demilitarized" zone in Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin doubled down on his maximalist and purposefully vague territorial objectives in Ukraine, voicing plans for setting up a so-called "demilitarized zone".
That’s according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, seen by Ukrinform.
During the meeting with his election "proxies", he stated that pushing the current frontline deeper into Ukraine is the most important goal for the Russian forces across the entire war theater.
Putin has emphasized the idea of a "demilitarized," or "sanitary" zone in Ukraine, which he says would put Russian territory, including occupied Ukraine, beyond the reach of both front-line artillery systems and long-range systems Ukraine receives from Western partners.
"Putin’s stated goal of pushing the front line so that Russia’s claimed and actual territories are outside of Ukrainian firing range is a vague goal that is actually unattainable as long as there is an independent Ukraine with any ability to fight," the ISW emphasizes.
Analysts suggest that Putin will most likely try to annex any new Ukrainian territories, but either way, should he succeed, those territories would still remain within reach of the weapons that Ukraine has at hand.
"Putin’s January 31 statements do not represent significant inflections in Russia’s stated war aims or actual military capabilities but are rather likely intended to capitalize on existing narratives in Western media that could block short and long term Western military assistance to Ukraine and compel the West to negotiate with Russia on Russian terms," ISW analysts believe.
Putin also included the city of Kharkiv, which he previously referred to as "Russian," in this hypothetical "demilitarized zone," likely to capitalize on discussions surrounding the unlikely possibility of a Russian offensive along Kharkiv region’s northern border with Russia’s Belgorod region.
"Putin may intend to amplify these discussions to divert Ukrainian attention away from the ongoing Russian offensive operation along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast axis, but ISW continues to assess that Russian forces in Belgorod Oblast can conduct only tactical-level actions that would serve as feints to draw and fix Ukrainian forces along the border," the report says.
Putin is also likely trying to appeal to resurgent calls from Russian ultra-nationalists to create a "buffer zone" between Kharkiv and Belgorod regions to push Ukrainian MLRS and artillery away from the international border with Belgorod region.
The report points out that Putin previously said he would consider creating such a "buffer zone" during widespread discontent about limited cross-border raids by pro-Ukrainian forces in Belgorod region in the summer of 2023, but the Russian military has yet to take any actions to suggest that that Putin has seriously considered such appeals.
Putin also highlighted Russia's offensive effort near Avdiivka likely to portray it as successful to domestic Russian audiences and to further justify Russia's war in Ukraine, analysts wrote.
As Ukrinform reported earlier, ISW emphasized that Putin's inability to achieve his maximalist goals in Ukraine is not yet a permanent factor, and only the continued support for Ukraine on the part of the West can guarantee that these goals remain unattainable.