Ammo shortage forces Ukraine to prioritize front line sectors - ISW

The lack of artillery ammunition and delays in military aid supplies from Western partners create uncertainty in Ukrainian operational plans at the front lines.

That’s according to a latest report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank.

Citing open-source investigations, analysts say Russian forces are taking advantage of Ukraine’s shell hunger and the inability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to engage in sufficient counter-battery combat.

Ukraine-based Frontelligence Insight organization said on February 1 that Russian forces previously established stationary artillery firing positions for long periods of time from late 2022 to early 2023 when ammunition shortages limited Ukrainian counterbattery warfare capabilities. Frontelligence stated that Russian forces began to concentrate their artillery in a similar way in January 2024, suggesting that Ukrainian forces are again running low on artillery ammunition.

According to the GUR defense intelligence agency, Ukrainian forces can sometimes strike Russian artillery but overall lack adequate ammunition for effective counterbattery fire. Frontelligence stated that the lack of Ukrainian counterbattery fire allows Russian artillery to largely destroy settlements, making it nearly impossible for Ukrainian forces to defend the settlements.

The organization says many of Ukraine’s FPV drones lack the range to strike the numerous Russian artillery pieces deployed 15 to 24 kilometers from the frontline.

“ISW continues to assess that artillery shortages and delays in Western security assistance will create uncertainty in Ukrainian operational plans and likely prompt Ukrainian forces to husband materiel, which may force Ukrainian forces to make tough decisions about prioritizing certain sectors of the front over sectors where limited territorial setbacks are least damaging," analysts conclude.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, since Europe is yet to deliver on its promise to send 1 million artillery rounds to Ukraine by March, the Czech Republic believes that it is necessary to look for supplies beyond the EU.