Russian forces currently conducting offensive efforts in at least three sectors - ISW

Delays in Western security assistance to Ukraine are likely helping Russia launch opportunistic offensive operations along several sectors of the frontline.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said this in its latest report, according to Ukrinform.

Russian forces are currently conducting at least three offensive efforts—along the Kharkiv-Luhansk region border, particularly in the directions of Kupiansk and Lyman; in and around Avdiivka; and near Robotyne in western Zaporizhzhia region.

After the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Avdiivka and the subsequent Russian claim of control over the entirety of Avdiivka, ISW, and several Ukrainian and Western sources assessed that delays in Western security assistance, namely artillery ammunition and critical air defense systems, inhibited Ukrainian troops from defending against Russian advances in Avdiivka.

“Critical Ukrainian shortages in Western-provided equipment and fears of the complete cessation of US military aid have forced Ukrainian troops to husband materiel along the entire front, which has likely encouraged Russian forces to exploit the situation and launch limited offensive operations outside of the Avdiivka area,” said ISW analysts.

ISW suggests that these Russian offensive efforts will likely hinder Ukrainian forces from preparing personnel and materiel for renewed counteroffensive operations, emphasizing the operational disadvantages that Ukraine will suffer if it simply digs in and attempts to defend for the rest of 2024 as some Western states and analysts advocate.

As earlier reported, ISW in its previous report said that the Russian capture of Avdiivka after four months of intensified offensive operations exemplifies the way that Russian forces pursue offensive operations that do not necessarily set conditions for wider operational gains.