Russia may focus its forecasted offensive on one operational direction - ISW

The Russian command may focus their forecasted late spring/summer 2024 offensive operation on western Donetsk region and will likely be limited to one operational direction due to a lack of forces.

That's according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrinform reports.

According to the report, Ukrainian officials have recently warned that Russian forces are accumulating personnel along the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, and in western Zaporizhzhia region. However, according to ISW analysts, Russian forces will likely only be able to launch a concerted large-scale offensive operation in one operational direction at a time due to Russia's own manpower and planning limitations.

The ISW report says that Ukrainian forces appear to have repelled a Russian battalion-sized mechanized assault near Avdiivka, Donetsk region, on March 30 -- the first battalion-sized mechanized assault since Russian forces began the campaign to seize Avdiivka in late October 2023.

The scale of the Russian mechanized assault on March 30 is significant. Russian forces have not conducted a mechanized assault this large since the beginning of the Russian localized offensive effort to seize Avdiivka in late October 2023, when Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed almost 50 Russian tanks and over 100 armored vehicles on October 19-20, 2023.

The ISW said that Ukraine's ability to defend against the March 30 assault, particularly near Avdiivka where Ukrainian forces have been forced to quickly withdraw to new, defensive positions following the loss of the settlement, "is a positive indicator for Ukraine's ability to defend against future large-scale Russian assaults and the expected summer 2024 Russian offensive operation."

"Ukrainian forces may have had to expend a significant amount of material to defend against the Russian assault near Tonenke, highlighting Russia's ability to conduct assaults that force Ukraine to expend outsized portions of its already limited material and manpower reserves to defend against. Ukraine's demonstrated ability to skillfully defend against a large-scale Russian assault in a particularly critical part of the front despite Ukraine's challenges suggests that Ukrainian forces can achieve significant battlefield effects if they are properly equipped," the report said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier said in an interview with CBS News that Ukraine needs assistance now, because a new Russian offensive is expected around the end of May or in June.