British intelligence assesses dynamics of Russia's war losses

Russia’s average daily losses in the war against Ukraine are getting higher by year. Since the full-scale invasion, the daily toll has risen by over 500.

The British Ministry of Defense reported this on X with reference to intelligence data, Ukrinform saw.

The summary states that since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russian forces have suffered an average of 658 casualties per day. Every year, the average daily loss (killed and wounded in action) increased: from 400 in 2022 to 693 in 2023, and to 913 in the first quarter of 2024.

"This increase reflects Russia’s ongoing reliance on mass to sustain pressure on Ukrainian frontlines," intelligence analysts believe.

At the same time, analysts noted that during March, the Russia’s average daily casualty toll decreased by 74 – to 913 people per day.

The British Ministry of Defense indicated that the drop in Russian losses was due to fewer attacks on the positions of Ukraine’s Armed Forces over the past month.

"The decrease in the number of Russian offensive operations most likely reflects a number of factors: the period of rest and rearmament after the occupation of Avdiyivka, as well as the intention to reduce the number of casualties during the Russian (presidential - ed.) elections," the analysts concluded.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, British intelligence in its previous review noted that the Russian air defense forces have repeatedly shot down their own planes over Crimea in friendly fire incidents, which points to human errors due to tension following successful Ukrainian strikes on targets on the occupied peninsula.