Ukraine’s defense intel chief expects Russian offensive as early as this spring
The head of Ukrainian defense intelligence agency, GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, expects a new Russian offensive to be launched late May.
The official spoke in an interview with Germany’s ARD, Ukrinform reports.
"Late spring or early summer, we expect an increase in Russian offensive efforts, especially in Donbas," Budanov said. He explained that the Russians may try to "scatter Ukrainian efforts on the front" with mass attacks, but Ukraine is preparing for this.
He characterized the current situation at the front as "rather difficult, but controlled", because the Russians do nothing unpredictable. Ukraine's chief intelligence officer does not expect major changes on the frontline until the Russian offensive begins. Currently, the enemy has actually achieved certain gains and is trying to advance toward Chasiv Yar and move toward Pokrovsk, but this does not pose a serious threat that could change the strategic operational situation. According to the head of intelligence, Ukraine will face the main challenge late May or early June.
He did not directly answer the question about the possibility of a Ukrainian offensive this year, noting that this is within the competence of the General Staff, while noting that he personally does not rule it out.
According to Budanov, a lot depends on the Czech initiative regarding artillery rounds for Ukraine. The need for ammunition at the front is now particularly acute. "An additional number of artillery systems, an additional amount of ammunition" is needed, notes Budanov, who expects a significant strengthening of the defense industry across Europe this year. He also hopes that the EU will be able to compensate for the lack of U.S. aid.
Answering a question about the German long-range Taurus missiles, the head of GUR admitted that these systems would "certainly make our lives easier", but it remains to be seen how effective these missiles are for Ukraine.
"To hit command centers, to hit some very important targets, this would be an excellent weapon," Budanov added.
He confirmed that the Crimea Bridge remains a valid Ukrainian target.
"The bridge is heavily guarded and protected. But everyone is working on it," Budanov said.
The head of GUR also commented on the proposals from Pope Francis regarding an all-for-all POW swap.
"I fully support it. Let's do it. There is one small matter left, which is convincing Russia," said the head of GUR, who himself deals with exchange matters and notes that sees no particular interest to this end from the Russian side.
Budanov said Türkiye is no longer the most active mediator in the POW exchange as the efforts are now championed by the UAE.
Regarding the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall near Moscow, Budanov categorically denied Ukraine’s involvement, calling out Russian accusations as "absolutely absurd" and aimed at further consolidation of hate toward Ukraine among the Russians. The same applies to the explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines. "I am more than sure that none of the officials in Ukraine could have anything to do with this. Even physically. And I know for sure that such orders were not given to any agency," he emphasized.
The head of GUR estimated that over 70% of average Russians generally support the war but for Ukraine these figures are no longer of any importance.
Budanov does not consider the current situation a "war of attrition", but sees it as a "classic conventional war". The transition into a war of attrition would be very bad for the whole world, warned the head of GUR. He also rejected the proposals from some politicians, in particular German ones, to freeze the war as it is.
As reported, the extreme right and extreme left in Germany constantly put forward ideas of freezing the war, but recently one of the leaders of the ruling Social Democratic Party, head of the SPD faction in the Bundestag, Ralf Mützenich, also voiced the idea, for the first time.