ISW: Shoigu likely attempting to temper domestic expectations ahead of Russian offensive

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu issued a notably candid assessment of recent Russian advances in Ukraine and refrained from sweeping claims about the success of the Russian war effort, possibly in an attempt to temper domestic expectations about Russia’s near future successes in Ukraine ahead of the summer 2024 Russian offensive operation.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this in a new Russian offensive campaign assessment, Ukrinform reports.

Shoigu claimed during a conference call with Russian military leadership that Russian forces have seized 547 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine since January 1, 2024.

However, ISW has observed evidence confirming that Russian forces have seized approximately 516 square kilometers in 2024 as of April 29, and Shoigu's claim is notably more realistic than previous claims that surpassed ISW's assessed Russian advances by roughly 100 square kilometers.

Shoigu previously used a similar conference call in December 2023 to downplay Russian operations in Ukraine as an "active defense," likely in an effort to temper expectations about Russian forces' months-long operation to seize Avdiivka.

"Shoigu may hope to similarly temper domestic expectations about Russian forces anticipated Summer 2024 offensive operation, particularly since Russian forces will be facing better-equipped Ukrainian forces than the Russian military command likely previously expected," ISW analysts said.