ISW analyzes impact of degraded air defense capabilities on Ukrainian energy infrastructure

Russian missile strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since March 2024 have likely caused long-term damage to the Ukrainian energy infrastructure and repeated energy blackouts.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this in its latest report, according to Ukrinform.

Analysts, in particular, recall that power outages to stabilize the power system began on May 14, and suggest that long-term damage to Ukraine's energy grid that generates persisting energy disruptions threatens to constrain Ukrainian efforts to expand its defense industrial base (DIB).

“Russian forces will likely continue to conduct mass strikes to cause long-term damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructure as degraded Ukrainian air defense capabilities persist until US-provided air defense missiles and other Western air defense assets arrive at scale,” the report says.

DTEK warned in late March that more accurate and concentrated Russian strikes are inflicting greater damage to Ukrainian energy facilities than previous Russian attacks did, ISE noted.

Experts also noted that Russian forces are reportedly able to conduct fixed-wing drone reconnaissance deep in the Ukrainian rear due to Ukraine's lack of air defense interceptors. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported on May 14 that Ukraine has had to husband its diminishing supply of surface-to-air missiles (SAM), which has allowed Russian reconnaissance drones to fly more freely into Ukrainian rear areas, including over Kharkiv City, and optimize Russian forces’ reconnaissance fire complex (RFC). RUSI stated that Ukraine's decreased air defense interceptor supplies have forced Ukraine to increasingly make difficult decisions between deploying air defense coverage to critical infrastructure in rear areas or to frontline areas.

RUSI noted that well-provisioned Ukrainian forces were previously able to curtail Russian reconnaissance capabilities for most of the full-scale invasion.

“Ukrainian forces require Western-supplied air defense interceptors in order to destroy Russian reconnaissance drones in both rear and frontline areas at scale and defeat the optimized Russian RFC that is enabling Russian tactical advances along the front,” RUSI stated.

As Ukrinform reported, the power outages that began on May 14 may last until August-September. In winter, there may be a deficit in the power system even at high temperatures.

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