Russia concentrating forces on border with Kharkiv and Sumy regions - ISW
Russian forces are reportedly concentrating forces of unspecified size in western Belgorod region near the border with Ukraine, likely to fix and draw Ukrainian forces to the area and prepare for offensive operations that aim to expand the Russian foothold in the international border area in northeastern Ukraine.
That's according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrinform reports.
ISW analysts recalled that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on May 26 that Russian forces are preparing for new offensive actions and are concentrating a grouping of an unspecified size near the Ukrainian border 90 kilometers northwest of Kharkiv City.
"Zelensky appears to be referring to the Grayvoron-Borisovka-Proletarskiy area in western Belgorod region, and ISW has observed satellite imagery of the area that suggests that Russian forces have expanded activities at depots and warehouses in settlements in the area in recent weeks," the report said.
The current size of the possible Russian force concentration in the Grayvoron-Borisovka-Proletarskiy area remains unclear, however, the ISW added.
Ukrainian State Border Service Representative Andrii Demchenko stated on May 26 that Russian forces may launch offensive operations into the Sumy region or areas of the Kharkiv region bordering the Sumy region in order to stretch and fix Ukrainian forces further along the international border area in northeastern Ukraine.
According to ISW analysts, the Grayvoron-Borisovka-Proletarskiy area would notably offer Russian forces opportunities to launch offensive operations to the south in the direction of Zolochiv and Bohodukhiv, two Ukrainian towns northwest of Kharkiv City within 25 kilometers of the international border, or to the west in the direction of settlements along the P-45 highway that connects Bohodukhiv with Sumy City.
Russian forces could pursue offensive operations in either one or both directions, and the Russian concentration here could be intended to cause Ukrainian forces to commit manpower and materiel to a wider section of the border in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions.
In addition, Russian forces are also concentrating limited forces in the Kursk and Bryansk regions close to the border with the Sumy region, and even limited concentrations in the areas could aim to achieve the likely desired effect of further drawing and fixing Ukrainian forces in the international border are, ISW said.
Russian forces are currently bringing the Northern Grouping of Forces in the international border area up to its reported planned end strength and will likely launch only limited offensive operations along the Sumy-Kharkiv axis until the Northern Grouping of Forces is closer to its end strength.
"Even limited Russian offensive operations in these areas will add pressure that stretches Ukrainian manpower and materiel along a wider front and possibly allow Russian forces to establish tactical footholds to support subsequent operations either northwest of Kharkiv City or in the direction of Sumy City," the report said.
The Northern Grouping of Forces, even at the upper limit of its reported end strength, will lack the necessary manpower needed to conduct a successful operation to envelop, encircle, or seize Kharkiv or Sumy cities, however, the ISW said.