Gen. Jarosław Kraszewski, former commander of the Polish Army’s missile and artillery forces

This week, Washington will host a NATO summit where aid for Ukraine will be discussed among other things. The gathering will take place amid several important decisions made by the US administration, particularly on the provision of additional air defense systems to Ukraine and a possibility for Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory, as well as preparations for F-16 fighters’ deployment in Ukraine.

In an Ukrinform interview, Gen. Yaroslaw Kraszewski, a former commander of the Polish Army’s missile and artillery forces and current CEO at the Polish private company RBL, which puts out drones among other products, shared his thoughts on how the arrival of F-16 fighters is going to change the situation on the Ukrainian battlefield, and whether Poland will shoot down Russian missiles flying over Ukrainian territory. He additionally revealed what he thinks is President Biden’s “strategic mistake” and provided his vision of a future of combat drones and of the conditions deemed necessary for liberation of currently Russian occupied parts of Ukraine.

UKRAINIANS WILL WIN THIS WAR, BUT WE MUST HELP THEM

- Mr. General, US President Joe Biden’s administration, in an official statement, announced it will prioritize deliveries of air defense missiles to Ukraine over orders from other customer countries.  How do you assess this decision, and why did Washington delay it for so long?

- The US delayed the decision because immediately after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, US President Joe Biden said that US troops will not set foot on Ukrainian soil as long as the war continues. I believe that this was a strategic mistake that just gave a green light for Putin to go ahead and do what he wanted to do in Ukraine. Now we have evidence that, unfortunately, this is not classic war, but rather the Russian Federation’s actions aimed at the complete destruction of Ukraine.

The world ---in which the US takes lead, after 10 years (after all, the war has been going on since 2014) – has ultimately understood: Russia cannot prevail over Ukraine. And even more, Moscow actually has no strategy vis-a-vis Ukraine. Its only strategy is in the complete destruction of Ukraine. For that reason, Russia has, since about mid-March 2022, been destroying civilian infrastructure, killing innocent people who have absolutely nothing to do with this war, and worst of all, children are dying.

The West has ultimately realized that if it continues like this, given that Ukrainians are way fewer than Russians, the attrition war may last into another year and a half, resulting in Russia’s total domination over Ukraine. I am expecting that NATO leaders will discuss this topic in detail at the summit in Washington. Europe should discuss and find an answer to the question about what will happen if Ukraine does not have enough people? Not missiles, launchers, or planes, but people, because wars are won by people, not machines. The Ukrainians will win this war, but we must help them. Therefore, this decision by the American government is important, but it is very late, and the delay has cost many lives.

- The USA eventually permitted the use of the lethal weapons it supplied against targets on sovereign Russian territory. But this permission, in fact, only affects the Russian areas bordering on Ukraine. Is that enough?

- Ukraine, like Israel now, must have weapons, which it could use to shoot down any threat heading towards it even while still flying over Russia’s territory. Aircraft and missiles, which I hope the Ukrainians will soon begin to use, may not turn the war around, but will undoubtedly make it possible, first of all, to get what is called Russian offensive on Kharkiv and Donetsk regions broken off. And, secondly, and most importantly, this will enable the Ukrainians to foster conditions for their first counterattack in the fall, and, in the spring of next year, to complete the job by returning to the state borderline as of prior to 2014. But for this to happen, Ukraine needs to have well-armed aircraft and ATACMS missiles.

- In other words, do you believe it realistic to achieve full de-occupation of Ukrainian soil by the spring of next year?

- With these capabilities available to Ukraine, it is realistic, yes. Ukraine does not currently have the ability to launch missiles deep into Russian territory. Specifically, strikes into the depth, not only within the line of contact, will enable the pace of offensive actions to be slowed down.

COMBAT DRONES WILL SOON DISPLACE ARTILLERY

- How do you assess the current capabilities of combat drones?

- Attacks with drones are still less effective than with missiles. The world has not yet mastered drone swarms. Whoever can do it first will win the war. An ATACMS missile costs USD 2 million, while a combat kamikaze drone, for example, which our company  produces, costs USD 100,000. One drone carries 45 kilograms of explosives, that is, 20 such drones will be equivalent to two ATACMS missiles. If they are launched and all reach their targets, then it will no longer be like a mosquito bite. Furthermore, in the case of strike weapons warehouses, oil refineries or airfields, they can hit 20 different targets at any one time.

- To be more precise, the capabilities of drones should not be underestimated...

- Yes, that’s right. Combat drones will soon supplant artillery because they are cheaper. These are all the lessons learnt from the Ukrainian front line.

To work effectively with artillery projectiles, one needs to have an expensive howitzer capable of withstanding intense and accurate firing. Also needed are Artillery Fire Control men and vehicles, weather stations, ballistic radars, as well as real-time positioning capabilities. Now a howitzer staying in a firing position for longer than two and a half minutes can be destroyed quickly. One has to drive up rapidly, complete a firing mission and run away from firing position. There cannot be a static approach to artillery fire operations, because a howitzer can be quickly hit by hostile drones. Therefore, a howitzer should be able to drive quickly out of, say, a forest, do a firing mission, then rapidly get back and hide itself in the forest.

Alternatively, as with a drone, no one knows where it took off from. A drone flying at the speed of sound is difficult to shoot down. It can also be stealth to radar when flying below its visibility level. Add to that, there is currently no longer need for continuous GPS communication as guidance is carried out using artificial intelligence: the drone itself analyzes the landscape and how to avoid obstacles, and flies hundreds of kilometers to its target with an accuracy measured in centimeters.

Today, Ukrainians must have highly capable air defenses, since countering drone threats is a difficult task to tackle. For now, the safest and most effective weapons for this are 12.7-mm heavy machine guns like the DShKM. If the Ukrainians have such DShKMs and related ammunition in abundance, then they will be able to effectively fend off Russian drone attacks. Furthermore, it is also necessary to have potent air defense missile systems, ranging from the Polish-made Piorun MANPADS to the American Patriot air defense missile systems. Ukraine must have these weapons in plenty, or otherwise the situation will be challenging.

DECISION ABOUT POLAND SHOOTING DOWN MISSILES HEADING TOWARDS IT WHILE STILL IN UKRAINIAN AIRSPACE REQUIRES ENDORSEMENT BY NATO

- Ukraine requested Poland to shoot down Russian missiles heading towards it while still in the Ukrainian airspace. Currently, Warsaw refrains from such a step. What is your opinion about whether Poland should respond yes to this request, and if so, when can such a decision be made?

- This is a difficult topic. Poland is a member of NATO. First, this is supposed to be agreed at the political level in the North Atlantic Alliance, so that the Kremlin’s propaganda does not promote narratives like "Poland's irresponsible actions caused the third world war."

But we must appreciate that Putin is intimidating us all, particularly by threatening that any aid to Ukraine provided above the current level will lead to an armed conflict with the West. I personally do not believe in this. Putin's strategists haven't had it figured out for 10 years and, I suspect, won't figure it out how to defeat Ukraine, then with what their army, already seriously weakened by the war in Ukraine, is supposed to assault on the West now? What will it assault on the West with: very long outdated tactical nuclear weapons, which are not even known if they are flyable at all? This is absurd.

Let’s get back to the topic, anyway. NATO lacks determination on that matter at the strategic and political levels…

- Does that mean to say that the situation regarding the downing of missiles over Ukraine will not change in the near term?

- A dramatic change in the battlefield situation will be there once the Ukrainian Air Force starts using the F-16’s. I think this will bring lots of positive things for Ukraine. The warplanes will foster conditions for a counterattack. Ukraine will hopefully have such a plan for the fall, given the need to protect the country's critical infrastructure before cold weather will come, because Ukrainians deserve to have normal living conditions – with electricity, water, and gas supply.

- How do you see this counterattack?

- The so-called Russian offensive will be broken off. Ukrainian air force will begin destroying, cyclically and effectively, logistical elements located deep in the Russian Federation’s territory. The Ukrainian air force should receive long-range missiles to destroy Russia's infrastructure assets, primarily airfields. Once this is happening, the Russian army will get its logistics cut off from its core forces. To this end, the Ukrainian army command will have to organize a strike group and deliver strikes, not dispersed but concentrated on one or at most two particular axes. The Ukrainian command knows where it is better to strike. When the Russians begin suffering heavy casualties from airstrikes, ATACMS missiles, etc., Putin himself will be pleading for peace talks.

- What’s your assessment of how the Ukrainian army in acting on Kharkiv axis?

- The Ukrainian army is now succeeding due to high morale. Despite the fact that, regrettably, many Ukrainians are falling at war, the command are doing everything to ensure that the Ukrainian soldier fights successfully. A Russian soldier fights because he has to, and a Ukrainian soldier because he wants to - that's the difference. Ukraine had got no air force actually, and it’s only now that it is receiving these capabilities. Until now, the fighting had been conducted in the way reminiscent of the World War I, with a relatively stable front line. Now the situation will be changing, but more trained flight personnel and lots of JASSM-class missiles are required. Given the range capability of such missiles, which is substantially long, the aviation could strike while operating from Ukraine’s western regions.

- Will anything change regarding support for Ukraine following the NATO summit?

- Must change. The increase in defense spending by NATO Allies, as announced by current Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, will also mean an increase in military aid funding for Ukraine, primarily for missiles and munitions, which the Ukrainian army needs so much.

Interviewed by Yury Banakhevych

Photo via Author