Russian forces will not be able to retain initiative throughout eastern Ukraine indefinitely - ISW

Russian forces will not be able to advance throughout eastern Ukraine indefinitely.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this in its latest report, according to Ukrinform.

“Russian forces will not be able to retain the initiative throughout eastern Ukraine indefinitely, and the culmination of Russian offensive operations will present Ukrainian forces with opportunities to contest the initiative further,” the report says.

It is noted that Russia's possession of the theater-wide initiative has allowed Russia to determine the location, time, intensity, and requirements of fighting in Ukraine, and Russian forces have leveraged these benefits to determine an offensive tempo.

“Russian forces pursued a prolonged effort to establish strategic and operational reserves ahead of Summer 2024 to support ongoing offensive efforts, and the Russian military has likely expended and committed many of these reserves to offensive operations throughout eastern and northeastern Ukraine in Spring 2024,” the analysts added.

However, they note that the Ukrainian operation in Kursk region and the heightened Russian priority of maintaining the tempo of offensive operations in Donetsk region will likely place greater strain on Russia's remaining operational reserves and likely begin to impact Russia's ability to sustain consistent offensive operations throughout the theater.

“Further Russian redeployments to Kursk Oblast would also further weaken Russia's ability to sustain offensive operations in northeastern and eastern Ukraine, although Russian forces are more likely to begin decreasing offensive activity on lower-priority sectors of the front than to do so equally throughout the frontline,” the analysts said.

As reported, the Ukrainian offensive operation in Russia’s Kursk region began on August 6, 2024.