Strikes against targets inside Russia can affect offensive operations along entire front - ISW

Continued Ukrainian strikes against rear Russian logistics facilities within Russia will generate wider operational pressures on the Russian military beyond the individual destruction of ammunition stockpiles and logistics facilities.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said this in a new report, according to Ukrinform.

ISW analysts said that Ukrainian forces conducted a series of HIMARS strikes against Russian ammunition depots throughout occupied Ukraine in the summer of 2022, prompting Russian forces to disperse ammunition storage facilities and degrading the efficiency of Russian logistics at the time.

Analysts believe that repeated strikes against ammunition depots within Russia that cause similar levels of damage to the strike in Toropets may force a similar decision point on the Russian military command to reorganize and disperse support and logistics systems within Russia to mitigate the impact of such strikes.

"Russian forces may not have eliminated vulnerabilities at many logistical facilities in Russia because of the so-called buffer zone created by Western restrictions on the use of Ukraine-provided weapons," the report said.

ISW believes that the lifting of restrictions on the use of Western weapons and the further development of Ukraine's own potential for long-range strikes can allow Ukrainian forces to more effectively exploit such Russian vulnerabilities.

"Russian forces may not have addressed vulnerabilities at many logistics facilities within Russia due to the sanctuary space that restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons have generated, although the Toropets facility is not within range of Western systems fired from Ukraine," analysts said.

Overnight into Wednesday, September 18, a drone hit an ammunition warehouse in Toropets, Russia's Tver region, causing a partial evacuation of the population.

The warehouse stored missiles for Iskander and Tochka-U missile systems, glide bombs, and artillery ammunition.

Later, satellite images emerged showing the aftermath of drone strikes carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate, and Special Operations Forces against a Russian arms depot in Toropets.