Russia lost at least five divisions since operations to seize Avdiivka started – ISW

The willingness of the Russian military command to achieve limited tactical success in exchange for significant losses of armored vehicles will become more expensive due to the limits to Russia’s Soviet-era vehicle stockpiles.

This is stated in a report by the Institute for Study of War (ISW), Ukrinform reports.

According to the report, Russian forces have reportedly lost at least five divisions’ worth of armored vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk area since beginning their offensive operation to seize Avdiivka in October 2023 and during intensified Russian offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast in Summer 2024.

ISW experts noted that an open-source X (formerly Twitter) user tracking visually confirmed Russian vehicle and equipment losses in Ukraine stated on October 4 that the user has confirmed that Russian forces have lost 1,830 pieces of heavy equipment in the Pokrovsk area since October 9, 2023.

“The X user’s assessment based on visually confirmed vehicle losses is likely conservative given that not all Russian vehicle losses are visually documented. The actual number of Russian vehicle losses in the Pokrovsk area is likely higher than reported,” the report says.

It is noted that the Russian military command may not be willing or able to accept the current scale and rate of vehicle loss in the coming months and years given the constraints in Russia's defense industrial production, limits to Russia’s Soviet-era vehicle stockpiles, and the Russian military's failure to achieve operationally significant territorial advances through mechanized maneuver. 

Analysts noted that Russian forces have only advanced about 40 km in the Avdiivka/Pokrovsk operational direction since October 2023 and a loss of over five divisions’ worth of equipment for such tactical gains is not sustainable indefinitely without a fundamental shift in Russia‘s capability to resource its war.

“The Russian military command's willingness to pursue limited tactical advances in exchange for significant armored vehicle losses will become increasingly costly as Russian forces burn through finite Soviet-era weapons and equipment stocks in the coming months and years,” the report says.

ISW added that Russia will likely struggle to adequately supply its units with materiel in the long term without transferring the Russian economy to a wartime footing and significantly increasing Russia's defense industrial production rates — a move that Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to avoid thus far.

As Ukrinform reported, the Russian army's losses in Ukraine over the past week amounted to 8,660 soldiers and 1,540 pieces of weapons and military equipment.