Kremlin theory of Russia’s ‘protracted offensive’ could create opportunities for Ukraine – ISW
Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s theory of ‘victory involves Russian forces carrying out continuous offensive operations in Ukraine for an indefinite period. However, this strategy will likely lead to a significant depletion of Russia's manpower and equipment.
This is according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as cited by Ukrinform.
“Putin's theory of victory relies on Russian forces conducting consistent offensive operations indefinitely, but these grinding assaults will likely degrade available Russian manpower and materiel significantly enough that Russian forces will have to decrease offensive tempo on at least select sectors of the front — presenting Ukrainian forces with opportunities to contest and perhaps seize the battlefield initiative in these areas,” analysts noted.
Putin and the Russian military command have tasked the Russian army with conducting offensive actions along the eastern and northeastern frontlines in Ukraine over the past year, aiming to exhaust the Ukrainian forces and prevent Ukraine from accumulating the manpower and resources needed for its own counteroffensive operations.
According to analysts, Putin and his military command view maintaining battlefield initiative as a strategic priority. They have shown a tolerance for protracted offensive operations that result in gradual advances but fall short of their intended operational objectives.
The report emphasizes that mid- to long-term constraints on Russian force-generation capacity and military-industrial production will undermine Russia's ability to support consistent offensive operations that seek to protract the war and overwhelm Ukraine through attrition.
As previously reported by Ukrinform, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine estimates that Russia’s total combat losses in Ukraine from February 24, 2022, to October 17, 2024, amount to approximately 674,270 personnel, with1,420 losses over the past day.