Putin’s dreams of partitioned Ukraine. The West will never accept another Munich-1938

The origination of this idea by Putin means only one thing: there is zero chance of the war coming to an end any time soon.

In recent days, three related events have occurred:

On November 19, the Russian dictator issued the decree “On Approval of the Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence”;

On November 20, a number of Ukrainian media outlets, citing intelligence sources, reported that the Russian Defense Ministry had prepared a forecast on the development of the global military and political situation until 2045, which includes the elimination of Ukrainian statehood, and that Moscow will soon try and communicate this “plan” through diplomatic channels to the United States or, rather, to representatives of the future Trump administration;

Overnight on November 21, the Russian Federation fired a missile of an unknown class at Dnipro City. Initial reports said that it was a Rubezh (‘frontier’) class of intercontinental ballistic missile, but later Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency, the HUR, identified it as medium-range ballistic missile, (i.e. not an ICBM, but a MRBM), part of the Kedr (cedar’) MRM missile system.

Without looking into each of these events in detail, let's focus on event No. 2, i.e. the enemy's "plan". What is in it? It is about the partitioning of Ukraine into three separate entities, namely:

The so-called "new regions of Russia": Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts and Crimea;

A state entity ruled by a pro-Russian proxy government, encompassing the territories of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr oblasts and the city of Kyiv. This state entity will give up aspirations for future membership in the European Union and NATO, and agree to Russian military presence on its territory;

"Disputed territories" (western Ukraine), encompassing Volyn, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Zakarpattia oblasts. The future of these territories will be a subject for negotiations between Russia and neighboring European countries – Hungary, Poland, and Romania.

Moscow seems to offer – explicitly or implicitly – Ukraine’s allies a new Munich-1938, which signed a verdict for Czechoslovakia. Can one even imagine that the West would endorse it? Experts are certain: No way!

The West is scary of the Bomb, but it will never accept Munich-1938 style deals

“There is a conventional wisdom which has it that a fool believes to be the doer. Putin and his camarilla can want anything, even the Cold War style partitioning of Europe between the USA and the so-called Russian Federation, but this, however, does not mean that the German people, the Czech, Polish, or American peoples will agree to this, and even less so the Ukrainian people,” diplomat Vadym Tryukhan said in a comment to Ukrinform.

In his opinion, there are no reasons whatsoever to discuss in serious terms the Kremlin’s delusional insinuations in the media. Ukraine should now put utmost focus on two things.

Vadym Tryukhan

“First, to step up domestic production of armaments while imposing a moratorium on low priority projects such as building fountains or laying road tiles... Everything must be spent on gun shells, bullets, missiles, tanks, and armored vehicles, and sustaining and maintaining the armed froces“, the expert says. “Second, Ukraine must focus itself on talks with our partners, not only American and European, but also South Korean and the Japanese, because the current situation is most favorable for this. We must dictate our conditions to Russia instead of responding to Russia’s attempts to dictate its conditions to us.”

In the same vein, the diplomat mentioned Russian ICBM strike on the city of Dnipro on November 21.

“This is a cry of despair; the Kremlin no longer knows what else to sabre-rattle with, because nothing else works. However, by launching this missile, the Russians sent a message to the Americans and Europeans, implying like, as you can see, we have the capability to even use ballistic missiles. This is firstly. Secondly, no matter what anyone says, they have problems with missile weapons. No, they do have missiles. But if they had enough missiles, they would not have launched 120 missiles in one single series of attacks, like it happened on November 17, but there would have been 300, 500 missiles launched at all the same time. However, they don’t have that many of them. If they had launched as many, they might have caused really irreparable damage to Ukraine’s energy and military infrastructures. And so they use missiles as a method of blackmail, terror, hoping to prompt a response, that Ukrainian society will start demanding peace on whatever terms, and the like. But this is not happening, however.”

Just on the contrary, each new attack results in only one thing: in more consolidated unity of Ukrainians in the face of the enemy, in even tougher resistance being offered to the enemy on all frontlines.

“Perhaps, on some stretches of we frontline we are forced to temporarily retreat, but with the receipt of additional weapons, with the growing production of weapons in-country, it is certain we will retake what we have lost. Victory will definitely be ours!”, Vadym Tryukhan is convinced.

The West will never agree to Ukraine nor any other country being partitioned. Because the West is about democracy, morality, values, i.e. the things that Russians do not have now nor ever had from the time immemorial.

“Russians are trying to approach the West in the same manner as if they were themselves, and this is their fundamental mistake. These stupid ideas they inject are like shots at nowhere. The West will never accept any partitioning of Ukraine, because there is no guarantee that this would not be followed up by a partitioning of Poland, then Germany or any other country they may choose, the diplomat thinks. Over the past almost three years since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation, the leaders of the Western world have taken off rose-colored glasses, and they no longer have trust in either Putin or the Russians as a whole, the terrorist state-like entity named "Russia". They have realized that this is an evil horde that must be rallied against and defeated. Indeed, they are still scared of the likelihood of nuclear war, but this despite they will never agree to Munich-1938 style agreements.

That being said, the expert continuous to note, the origination of such ideas by Putin means one thing: there is no chance of the war ending any time soon.

"Ukraine should shift towards medium-term planning of defense against the Russians for at least 2-3 years. And in negotiations with the Trump team, it is crucial to make sure that this situation is turned to your advantage by providing convincing evidence of the Russian Federation current leaders’ inadequacy as rulers,” Vadim Tryukhan emphasized.

The leakage of such “plans” can play into our hands

Policy analyst Ihor Reiterovych believes that the appearance of this “Putin’s plan” is indicative of Russians continuing living within the paradigm to which they began to give shape in years after 2004: “This approach clearly echoes the articles by Timofey Sergeytsev, a Russian propagandist and author of the notorious publication “What Should Russia Do with Ukraine?”. This also suggests that Russia is considering various scenarios, including those that they consider “optimal.”

One such plan has probably been leaked into the media, which the Kremlin does not seem to have opposed. But this, however, in no way means to say that this plan is the only one or realistic, believes the analyst.

Ihor Reiterovych

“Obviously enough, this scenario is inherently faulty and fundamentally unpromising. This despite, part of the Russian elite are still certain that they will be able to achieve their goals if they “have a little patience” and wage the war until it reaches its “logical end”. But this only underscores how far such strategies are detached from reality”, he continues to note.

Mr. Reiterovych believes that the Russian missile attack on Dnipro city, along with most recent updates to Moscow’s nuclear doctrine and the appearance of this “plan” are, as the Russians themselves say, “links to the same chain”.

“At first, so-called “strategic research institutes” draw up concepts, often senseless, originating from individuals like Karaganov – a notorious imperialist and fascist, who has repeatedly called for a preventive nuclear strike on Europe while himself owning real estate in Italy. The only real tool that remains in their arsenal is war and conspicuous “swinging with nuclear club”. It is important to appreciate that the leakage of the scenarios like the “partitioning of Ukraine by 2045” can be intentional, the analyst says, and continues, “Russia deliberately makes public maximum-plan scenarios as part of the game “to raise the stakes”. The goal is to get everyone scared, then retreat a little bit by offering supposedly “more realistic” options. The strike on Dnipro city with a new ballistic missile class is a part to this strategy, a message that the Kremlin is ready for extreme moves where its ambitions are at stake.

At the same time, Mr Reiterovych believes that we should rather be happy that those “wishful thinking plans” are so unrealistic.

“Even those people the West who could, hypothetically, imagine the possibility of a dialogue with Moscow, like the one between Khrushchev and Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis, are looking at these leakages wagging their fingers at their temples. Western analysts are faced with a situation where their opponents are operating, to put it mildly, with grassroots level concepts, like thugs, without understanding how the modern world works, he says. Quite ironically, the publication of such materials can even have positive effect, revealing both to the West and us how inadequate they are.”

The West will never accept another Munich 1938

“Assuming that Russia’s revenge is a success, this will encourage particular political forces in many different countries to follow suit. For example, similar revanchist sentiments can gain sway within certain political circles in Europe, like “Russia could do it – why not us?”. Let us imagine, hypothetically, that leaders like Orbán will begin to publicly make territorial claims to neighbors – particularly Slovakia and Croatia among other countries. This would destabilize Europe, turning the continent into an arena of conflicts similar to those that took place in the 19th or early 20th centuries.”

For the West, countering such scenarios is a matter of self-preservation

“It is important for us to understand that such “leakages” from Russia are indicative of desperation. This is an attempt to shake up, to impose a delusional belief that such scenarios are realistic. We need to respond calmly to this, remain vigilant, especially when it comes to real threats, such as air raids, while clearly realizing that these ideas are as faulty as the plans Russia had before launching all-out military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. And the world understands this well,” Ihor Reiterovych argues.

“These plans are out of touch with reality, are nothing but just wet dreams

Policy analyst Maksym Yali agrees that “plans to divide Ukraine into three parts” are nothing but a Russian fantasy. He reminds that similar plans are not new. Particularly back in 2014, the now late Vladimir Zhirinovsky proposed dividing Ukraine between the Russian Federation, Poland, Hungary, and Romania.

Maxym Yali

“This all is gaining momentum now as Donald Trum is going to be inaugurated as US president on January 20, 2025. But, obviously enough, it has nothing to do with reality, is the enemy’s “wet dreams”. In my opinion, this should be considered as a part of PSYOP, an attempt to make primarily Ukrainian society demoralized and stressed against the backdrop of a new escalation,” says Mr. Yali.

Updates to Russia’s nuclear strategy and ICBM strike on Dnipro

Putin is threatening that if the West does not give up its support for Ukraine, the next missile will be launched carrying a nuclear warhead. Putin will definitely not do this, at least until Trump’s inauguration on January 20, Maksym Yali says.

“After all, this will result in a wholly different level of international isolation. Even Russia’s ally China is warning Putin against this move. Beijing has repeatedly reiterated this stance, mentioning inter alia that the PRC too is a signatory to the Budapest Memorandum. So these actions (updates to the nuclear doctrine, the "plan to partition Ukraine", an ICBM strike on Dnipro - ed.) are all aimed to intimidate partners and dissuade them from supplying missiles to Ukraine, fearing that this can turn the tide of war in Kyiv’s favor.

“What matters most is that the European allies have these missiles in a sufficient quantity... The reinforcement is unlikely to arrive within the next two months, but at a little later time. So Putin understands that up until that time the "window of opportunity" remains open to him ", Maksym Yali said in conclusion.

Myroslav Liskovych. Kyiv