Putin compares Oreshnik to meteor to intimidate Ukraine and West – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that there is nothing particularly novel about the capabilities of the Oreshnik missile, and U.S. and Ukrainian officials indicated that the Oreshnik missile does not portend a Russian escalation in the war.

The ISW said this in a new report, according to Ukrinform.

Analysts noted that Vladimir Putin's efforts to stress the missile's technical specifications are part of the larger reflexive control campaign that the Kremlin is currently pursuing, and highlighting its range and payload while comparing its destructive capabilities to that of a meteor is meant to threaten both Ukraine and the West and discourage further Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory using Western-provided systems.

"Even Putin's threat of strikes on 'decision-making centers' in Kyiv rings empty -- Russian forces regularly strike civilian and critical infrastructure in Kyiv City with drones and nuclear-capable missiles," ISW analysts said.

ISW recalled that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky summarized this fact on November 29 in response to Putin's CSTO statements and said that "Putin wants to add thousands more to the thousands of missiles that have already hit Ukraine."

Reuters, citing five sources close to U.S. intelligence, reported on November 27 that the November 21 Oreshnik strike has not changed the U.S. intelligence assessment that Russia is unlikely to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, even in retaliation for Ukrainian strikes into Russia with Western-provided weapons.

"Putin's constant flaunting of the Oreshnik and Russian missile capabilities therefore remains part of the Kremlin's reflexive control information operation and is unlikely to presage the development of particularly novel Russian deep strike capabilities," analysts concluded.

Early on November 21, As Ukrinform reported, on November 21, Russian forces launched an intercontinental ballistic missile at Dnipro.

Kremlin leader Putin stated that the Russian army had used an Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile in the attack, allegedly in retaliation for Ukraine using American and British long-range missiles.

British intelligence believes that the use of a Russian Oreshnik ballistic missile against Dnipro was likely "strategic messaging" from Moscow in response to Ukraine's use of Western missiles into Russia.

At the CSTO summit in Astana, Putin said that future Oreshnik strikes could target "decision-making centers" in Kyiv.