Ukraine likely to face coldest winter in decades – Vitrenko

Russia may target Ukraine’s gas infrastructure to further decrease its gas supplies to Europe.

The relevant statement was made by Naftogaz Board Chairman Yuriy Vitrenko in an interview with The Guardian, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

In his words, Ukrainians are likely to experience the coldest winter in decades, as indoor temperatures will be set at between 17-18 degrees Celsius, which is about four degrees lower than normal. Vitrenko recommended that people stock up on blankets and warm clothes for when outdoor temperatures fall to and beyond -10 degrees Celsius.

According to Vitrenko, the heating season will start later and end sooner.

The situation will depend on Ukraine’s international allies granting funds to purchase 4 billion cubic meters of natural gas, as well as different unpredictable factors, such as Russia destroying gas infrastructure or further decreasing its gas supplies to Europe.

“Without the [western] financial support we will lack gas and it will mean we’ll have really high risks for the power system [going] down. […] [Without the gas imports], there will be blackouts in big parts of Ukraine. In terms of heating, if we don’t have this 2bn cbm of gas, then it will mean some of the households will not get enough heating … so it will be really too cold,” Vitrenko noted.

Ukraine produces about 60% of the gas it needs domestically and imports the rest from EU countries at market prices. In 2014, the country ceased to buy natural gas from Russia directly.

Ukraine needs to import about 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas. According to Vitrenko, in his opinion, Ukraine’s allies understand the need, but he cannot be confident Ukraine will get the funds, because “it’s very difficult to be confident during a war”.

However, the current calculus may change if, for example, Russia decides to target any critical gas infrastructure facility, power plants or gas production enterprises in Ukraine. About 50% of Ukraine’s gas fields are located in Kharkiv Region, just 6-7 kilometers away from the front line. If they or Ukrainian gas storage facilities are damaged, Ukraine will need to import more gas.

Russia may also decide to further decrease its gas supplies to the EU, making the cost of gas even more expensive. Earlier this year, Russia already cut gas supplies to Europe, which dramatically increased gas and electricity prices in some countries, including the United Kingdom.

mk