NBU projects Ukraine’s GDP to fall by 32% this year

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) projects that Ukraine’s GDP will drop by around 32% in 2022.

“GDP will fall by around 32% this year,” NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy said this at a briefing, an Ukrinform correspondent reported.

Pyshnyy noted that economic recovery is restrained by logistical problems, destruction of production facilities, a decrease in real household income, and weaker performance of agriculture. 

According to him, in 2023–2024, the economy will recover gradually at a pace of 4%–5%

Pyshnyy added that a decline in security risks from the middle of 2023 assumed by the forecast will be the key factor in the future economic recovery. Moreover, large budget support will boost consumer demand and investment in the reconstruction of the country.

At the same time, significant losses of labor force and production capacity, high global energy prices, and large import needs in the period of post-war reconstruction will be a drag on economic recovery, Pyshnyy said.

As Ukrinform reported, Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy estimates a 30% drop in Ukraine's GDP in January-September 2022.

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