Ukraine cannot terminate contract for Russian gas transit - expert

Ukraine is unable to terminate the contract on the transit of Russian gas through its territory, as this would be in breach of its international obligations but in a year, Naftogaz will cease such transit to Europe.

That’s according to Hennadiy Riabtsev, Director for special projects at the Psychea Scientific and Technical Center, who spoke on the air of Ukrainian Radio.

"The problem is that there are contracts signed long before 2022, and private European companies are forced to fulfill them. And in order to fulfill these contracts, it is necessary to ensure supply, including through Ukraine. Therefore, the Ukrainian side cannot, say, terminate the contract today, or tomorrow, or next year, as this would contradict Ukraine's international obligations. So we have a paradoxical situation where we are at war but we’re transiting Russian gas via our territory," Riabtsev said.

Europe will definitely do without Russian energy carriers after 2025, the expert believes because no new contracts with Russian oil and gas companies are expected to be signed, and the implementation of existing deals will have been completed by then. He also noted that Europeans cannot give up Russian energy until December 31, 2024, because otherwise they would be forced to pay Russia for the full amount of gas that has not been consumed. Such conditions were laid down in long-term and medium-term contracts, when European politicians did not yet realize a Russian threat.

"Gas transit will be put to a halt from January 1, 2025. And then all Europeans who will still have Russian gas will receive it as they do through the Turkish Streams – via the Black Sea and Turkey, and in liquefied form – through the North Sea ports,” the expert believes.

Riabtsev added that while Russia is able to refocus coal or oil supplies toward the East the situation of natural gas exports is much worse for Moscow.

“After all, you can talk as much as you want about ‘Power of Siberia’ or ‘Power of Siberia-2’, but these pipelines are non-existent. And the one that exists is capable of annually transmitting 18 billion cubic meters at full capacity. And that's it, you can't ship over that limit. Therefore, this is a reduction in the volume of gas output in Russia this year and this reduction will be even worse over the next two years at least," the expert stressed.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, the European Commission said the EU aims to end Europe's dependence on Russian hydrocarbons within this decade.