Central bank looks into scenarios for Ukraine’s development along European integration progress

The very prospect of Ukraine's membership in the EU and the fulfillment of the relevant conditions will stimulate the country's economic growth even before its formal accession, and the integration process will stimulate foreign trade and attract investments, which will strengthen the country's institutional capacity.

This was reported by the NBU via Facebook as regards possible scenarios for the development of Ukraine's European integration progress.

The NBU is eyeing two main scenarios for the development of Ukraine's European integration progress, which differ primarily in the completeness and pace of reforms.

Under the scenario of partial reforms, the economy may grow by approximately 4% over the decade, and GDP per capital is expected to exceed $10,000 by 2033.

On the other hand, if the scenario of rapid transformation sees success, these indicators will increase to about 7% and almost $15,500, respectively.

This is evidenced by the experience of other nations that have passed the path of European integration. The countries of Central and Eastern Europe that joined the EU in 2004 had the levels of labor productivity and GDP per capita in 2003 were on average almost 10% higher than in case they had no opportunity to join the EU.

"An important prerequisite for the successful European integration of Ukraine is, among other things, the further implementation of the NBU's mandate to ensure price stability," the regulator emphasized.

The National Bank noted that the Ukrainian economy is gradually recovering, mainly thanks to making up for losses inflicted by Russia's full-scale aggression. However, sustainable economic growth at a high rate is possible only under the condition of a steady increase in productivity levels.

As reported earlier, citing the NBU outlook, in 2024 Ukraine’s economy will grow by 3.6%. In 2025–2026, annual economic growth will accelerate to 4–6% thanks to the reduction of security risks, which is the main assumption of the NBU forecast, as well as the improvement of consumer and investment sentiments, and the implementation of European integration reforms.

According to tentative estimates drawn up by the Ministry of Economy, the volume of gross domestic product increased by approximately 5% last year.