British intelligence analyzes Russia’s arms production under sanctions

Global sanctions against the Russian Federation continue to disrupt the supply of key resources to the Russian defense industry, affecting Russia's weapons production.

This is stated in the analytical report posted on X by the UK Ministry of Defense.

As noted, Russia's isolation limits the number of countries with which it can trade directly, increasing the time and cost to acquire items it could once buy freely. In particular, analysts refer to the research data from the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies, suggesting that third countries charge price premiums of more than 60% for exports of certain sanctioned goods to Russia.

"While Russia has increased production of key munitions most heavily used in Ukraine, such as artillery shells, the impact of the sanctions is highly likely greatest on Russia’s most advanced and complex weapon systems. These systems in production and development almost certainly have an increased reliance on foreign components and technology," the report says.

Analysts believe the sanctions may continue to disrupt both supply and demand for Russian arms exports, as well as significantly complicate payment mechanisms to Russia.

"This has almost certainly contributed to a significant decline in Russia’s arms exports and increased delivery delays, including to some of its most important remaining arms customers," analysts wrote.

They cite figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute showing that Russia's share of the global arms trade has fallen to 11% between 2019 and 2023, compared to 21% between 2014 and 2018.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, hundreds of Western and Russian companies are involved in the Kremlin's illegal schemes to avoid sanctions and ensure covert deliveries to the Russian Federation of electronic components required for the production of weapons.