UK intelligence assesses potential for Ukraine's economic recovery

High levels of exports demonstrate Ukraine's ability to export products through its shipping corridor in the Black Sea, contributing to the recovery of the Ukrainian economy in 2024.

The UK Defense Ministry said this in a situation update on Ukraine published on X, Ukrinform reports.

According to the update, in April 2024, Ukraine exported the highest volume of grain and oilseed since the outbreak of war, reaching 6.6 million tonnes. According to experts, this demonstrates Ukraine's ability to export unilaterally via its shipping corridor in the Black Sea.

"Throughput at the Black Sea ports have almost certainly reached a monthly export volume higher than any other point in the conflict [Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine], including that achieved under the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI)," the update reads.

Approximately 5.2 million tonnes out of the total grain and oilseed exports in April 2024 departed from Ukraine's Black Sea ports, compared to a peak of 4.2 million tonnes under the BSGI in October 2022.

Analysts note that Ukraine's maritime corridor has enabled around 1,600 transits by vessels and exports of a total of 45 million tonnes of cargo since its launch in August 2023. The majority of this has comprised of agricultural exports, consisting of more than 30 million tonnes in the 9-month period.

"The remainder is primarily iron ore and steel products, which previously was unable to be exported by sea during the BSGI. Overall, this will support Ukraine's economic recovery in 2024," the UK Defense Ministry said.

The intelligence said that shipping from Ukraine is highly likely vital for global food security, with Ukraine's grain exports likely to be around 9.7% of global grain exports between July 2023 and June 2024.

"While agricultural exports are almost certainly dependent on the Black Sea ports, representing around 78% in volume, other routes remain in use," the analysts said.

In particular, Ukraine continues to export grain and oilseeds via the Danube River at around 15% by volume, rail at around 6% by volume, and road at under 1% by volume.