No significant fluctuations in exchange rate expected until year-end – expert’s opinion

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will continue efforts to maintain balance between supply and demand, which will serve as a safeguard against rapid exchange rate fluctuations.

The relevant statement was made by Globus Bank Board Chairman Serhii Mamedov in a commentary to Ukrinform.

According to the banker, the FX market conditions are unlikely to change significantly until the end of 2024. The exchange rate fluctuations will range from UAH 41.3 to UAH 41 for the U.S. dollar, which generally meets the exchange rate estimates provided in Ukraine’s state budget for 2024.

“Throughout this year, the NBU’s monetary policy has been quite effective and balanced, which allowed for lending to intensify and hryvnia deposits to gradually refocus to longer terms, from 1 year to 2.5 years, offering now the highest rate of up to 15% per annum. Meanwhile, the regime of ‘managed flexibility’, which was introduced by the National Bank in the FX market, significantly reduced the demand for currency and allowed for the market regulation of exchange rates to return. But, at the same time, in order to prevent uncontrolled processes, the NBU retained effective leverage on the market, namely through the foreign exchange intervention mechanism, which is extremely important for the normal functioning of the market amid the war,” Mamedov explained.

He mentioned that the National Bank’s exchange rate policy had been rather effective since early 2024. Despite economic and wartime challenges, the market has not seen any excitement or panic for a long time, and dollars or euros are not considered to be in deficit.

“Of course, exchange rate indicators are perceived by most citizens as a marker of the economic situation in the country. Therefore, we predict that in the future the National Bank will act effectively and quite decisively if necessary. Hence, despite the potentially new and yet unknown military and economic challenges, the overall situation on the FX market will remain quite stable and predictable, and the hryvnia is not at risk of uncontrolled depreciation,” Mamedov concluded.

A reminder that, according to the data from the National Bank of Ukraine, the regulator sold USD 2.68 billion on the interbank foreign exchange market in August 2024, which is 19.3% lower compared to the previous month. Since early 2024, the National Bank’s stabilization interventions had exceeded USD 20 billion.