Kremlin sees Ukraine's access to the Black Sea as threat to Russia - intel
Moscow assesses the approval of a pro-Western development course in Ukraine and preservation of the latter’s access to the Black Sea as a threat that may lead to problems for Russia.
That’s according to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry (GUR), Ukrinform reports.
"Their military-political leadership, using its own assessment of Ukraine's situation, is planning further combat and special actions within the framework of the ongoing war against Ukraine," the GUR notes.
Thus, the Kremlin focuses on ensuring that international aid to Ukraine wanes. At the same time, advisers to the Russian leaders warn them against wishful thinking that Western assistance packages will stop flowing into Ukraine in 2024.
According to Ukraine’s intelligence, the establishment of a pro-Western vector of development and preservation of Ukraine's access to the Black Sea is seen by Moscow as a threat that could lead to "even greater problems" for Russia in the future.
Russians also see the total public contempt for Russia, prevalent in Ukraine, as a special threat.
One of the elements of the public opinion shift that Russia believes is critical is the gradual transition of Russian speakers in Ukraine to the Ukrainian language in everyday life.
The public consensus that has emerged in Ukraine as a result of Russia’s full-scale invasion is a source of deep frustration for Kremlin leaders, the report reads.
As the GUR notes, in order to re-engage former Russia supporters in Ukraine, Moscow "strategists" emphasize the need to show them "the image of the future for Ukrainians under different scenarios of the ‘Special Military Operation.’”
The Kremlin stops short of specifying what this means exactly but experts emphasize that resolving the “problem” within Ukraine in Russia’s favor would definitely imply “a drastic change of elites and violent purges", intelligence analysts emphasize.
At the same time, the Russians believe that a long war with Ukraine in the current configuration of global powers could lead to destabilization within Russia itself, so it seems that in 2024 the aggressor state will strengthen their repressive domestic policies, the GUR suggests.
As Ukrinform reported earlier, referring to the GUR, Russia finds it mandatory to undermine unity within Ukraine, including by running malign influence campaigns.