Kremlin trying to create conditions for justifying possible aggression against Moldova - ISW

In Moldova, Russian proxy forces continue their campaign to create conditions for justifying a potential aggression on the part of the Russian Federation.

That’s according to the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, Ukrinform reports.

The summary states that on April 19, the People's Assembly of Gagauzia, a pro-Russian autonomous region in Moldova, appealed to the Moldovan parliament with a request to grant Russian language a special legal status as the language of international communication. The pro-Russian governor of Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, claimed to a Russian media outlet that the “Russophobic” Government of Moldova resists the initiative.

"The Gagauzian appeal is likely part of Kremlin efforts to set information conditions to blame Moldova for discriminating against Russian speakers and justify future Russian aggression in Moldova as necessary to protect Russia’s ‘compatriots abroad,’” ISW analysts believe.

On the same day, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov, during an interview with Russian state media, stated that the West had forced the President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, to "openly drag Moldova into NATO, either directly or through unification with Romania", adding that the same had previously been done with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. The Russian minister also criticized Moldova and Armenia’s westward course, and called on these countries to reconsider their decisions, claiming that the West would force their citizens to fight in a potential war against Russia.

ISW experts suggest that Lavrov's comparison of the government of Moldova with those of Armenia and Ukraine is likely a “tacit threat”.

"ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is likely trying to destabilize Moldovan society, attack Moldova’s democratic government, and prevent Moldova’s accession to the European Union," the think tank concluded.

Earlier, the Institute for the Study of War emphasized that Russia intends to exploit Transnistria and Gagauzia to run hybrid operations in order to destabilize Moldova.