Turkey plays critical role in shaping ceasefire, post-war arrangement - think tank

Turkey's role is critical in shaping the conditions for a ceasefire and post-war arrangements between Ukraine and Russia, as it possesses tools to prevent escalation by Russia and to offer a way out of the war that all parties may support.

That’s according to an article posted by the Atlantic Council, Ukrinform reports.

"As a major military and diplomatic power committed both to Ukraine’s survival and a modus vivendi with Russia, Turkey possesses tools to prevent escalation by Russia (as shown by its ability to push back or deter Russia in Libya and Syria) and to position itself as a country that can offer an off-ramp from war that all sides may actually support," the article says.

It is also noted that in the coming years, in case both Ukraine and Russia are exhausted, Turkey would have an optimal strategic position, provided a settlement and assurances are in place to prevent the conflict from reemerging, which is not the worst option for both warring countries, the region, and the West.

“Turkey, and its approach to peacemaking, offers unique value here: It combines enough hard power to make clear that Russia would not emerge as regional hegemon or conqueror, but leaves enough doors open to fostering ties that the Kremlin would have reasons to end the war. Theories of European and NATO security, conflict termination in Ukraine, and Black Sea stabilization must be addressed holistically—and the Turkish triangular approach accounts for both what the Russians may be willing to swallow and what the West may accept if and when Ukraine is ready," the article says.

It also points out that Turkey’s triangular strategy has helped lessen the chances of an outright Ukrainian defeat and may make continued military support—with Turkish and European contributions—more sustainable for the next U.S. administration.

“US and European partners should increase strategic consultations, develop a shared understanding of Turkey’s role in the future security architecture in the Black Sea region, and help resource it through defense industrial and military operational projects. Prospects for peace, deterrence, and regional stability would benefit greatly if they do," the piece concludes.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, the Atlantic Council previously wrote that the success of drone usage in Ukraine is worth emulating in developing cyber defenses.