China pursuing frozen war, threatening Europe - German lawmaker
The ongoing UN General Assembly could be the beginning of tectonic shifts that will have a direct impact on the comfort zone to which Europeans have got used to, and the reason is China.
That’s according to an opinion piece by Dr Marcus Faber, Chairman of the German Bundestag Defense Committee, posted by Defence Network, Ukrinform reports.
Faber believes China is serious about its peacemaking and mediating efforts to stop the war in Ukraine and is set to firmly seize the initiative given the uncertainty in the U.S. in the run-up to the presidential election that opens a window of opportunity for Beijing.
China may offer a plan to end the war with “concrete measures and timelines”, thus setting in motion the process of settlement in line with their scenario.
“It will be emphasized again and again that the Global South (as amorphous as this term may be), the BRICS or even the ‘world majority’ are behind the initiative. As a first step, Beijing could simply gather a few dozen ministers or high-ranking representatives from the Global South on the sidelines of the General Assembly (the Ukrainians are not invited, of course) to form a kind of ‘core group’ that could be quickly expanded to include other states from Africa, Latin America and Asia or regional international organizations,” the lawmaker suggests.
This, Faber stresses, will certainly not be the plan of Europe and certainly not the plan of Ukraine, whose President Volodymyr Zelensky is promoting “a just peace based on the UN Charter”.
China does not have Ukraine’s interests in mind, the legislator argues, and “whether Ukraine exists tomorrow doesn’t matter to the rulers in Beijing”.
“Only its own profit counts for China,” Faber emphasizes.
Suggesting that China will put the initiative in a “beautiful verbal shell”, under it will remain a simple core – “a frozen war”, which will come as a result of a concealed ultimatum to Ukraine, and thus to its allies, on behalf of China, which hides behind the role of a spokesman for the interests of the “world majority”.
The only benefactors of that freeze would be China and Russia, Faber underlines.
China’s plan would undermine all Ukraine's efforts to set up a second peace summit where the conditions for peace on the continent could be discussed with the participation of Kyiv, Moscow, and other affected states.
While China’s plan does not envisage a Russian victory with such attributes as a tricolor over Kharkiv, Kyiv or Odesa or an immediate lifting of international sanctions, it is essentially about not letting Russia lose in a war where China has become the main beneficiary given the amount of mineral resources Moscow is forced to give up almost for free in exchange of continued supply of important products.
Also, the success of China’s plan would be a major foreign policy success for Beijing as it would “consolidate its role as the leader of the Global South by leveling the influence of the West and crystallizing a ‘majority coalition’ loyal to China in the Russian-Ukrainian solution”.
“The People's Republic is trying to reshape the global security architecture in its own way. It wants to create a world in which Beijing, and not international law, is the decisive arbiter in all conflicts,” Faber opines.
The lawmaker sees China’s initiative as only a first step, with the effort’s real contours set to only become visible later – in a month’s time at the BRICS summit in Kazan or later at the “Peace Conference on Ukraine” convened by Beijing, or “at the height of the drama – in the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia initiated by China, where both sides are forced to the negotiating table (under Chinese mediation, of course, but to make the picture seem less bleak, Beijing would like to involve one of the powerful European players as a mediator)”.
“Brussels, Paris, Berlin and other European capitals must understand that it is unacceptable to issue an ultimatum to the parties to the conflict, especially to the victim of aggression (even if it is disguised as the ‘will of the world majority’),” Faber stresses. “On the contrary, we must provide Ukraine with the help it needs.”
Only in this way does peace have a chance and a world order with Chinese features can be prevented, the lawmaker concludes.