Trump's unpredictability may benefit Ukraine – expert
Trump's unpredictability could work to Ukraine's advantage, while it poses a threat to Russia, as there is no clear understanding of how the U.S. President-elect will build his strategy, which limits Putin's decision-making abilities.
This was stated in an exclusive interview with Ukrinform in The Hague by Julia Soldatiuk-Westerveld, an expert at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael.
"Trump's victory is, of course, a risk in some respects, but it's not necessarily a bad outcome. His unpredictability could actually benefit Ukraine, because the country now has more opportunities. For Russia, it's a threat, as Putin finds it difficult to predict how Trump will react, which limits his ability to make decisions," she explained.
According to Soldatiuk-Westerveld, both the EU and the Biden administration have clearly defined their "red lines," and their approach was well understood by the Kremlin.
"It was clear what Ukraine should not do, what the West would absolutely not accept. This gave Putin an advantage, as there was a predictable reaction. He could calculate how the West would respond to his actions. Now, this situation has changed because it is unclear what to expect from Trump. As a result, making decisions will carry greater risks for Putin, and he may hesitate and take fewer risks," she added.
She also noted that Donald Trump's return to the White House could shift U.S. foreign policy.
"There is a risk that Europe's influence on this issue will decrease, with decision-making moving towards Trump, who may look for quick ways to end the conflict as soon as possible. So, for Ukraine, the first few months could be a period of instability," she said.
However, she suggested that if Trump pressures Ukraine into making decisions that compromise its sovereignty and territorial integrity, it could lead to strong disagreement with countries that have more experience with Russia and feel the threat more acutely.
"This concerns Poland, the Czech Republic, and the Baltic States. These countries are already openly warning that Ukraine should not be pushed into an unfavorable agreement, as this would create significant instability in those countries as a response," she added.
Soldatiuk-Westerveld predicted that the next four months could be a turbulent period for Ukraine.
"I don't think Ukraine’s support will decrease because that would weaken Ukraine's position in any negotiations or on the front lines. It would also harm the U.S.'s reputation, as they have already invested so much in Ukraine. So, if Trump pressures Ukraine and Russia to quickly reach an agreement and end the conflict, it doesn't mean that he will reduce financial or military aid to Ukraine. In my opinion, this is one possible scenario," she concluded.
The expert also emphasized that, due to Russia's aggression, security guarantees have become a particularly pressing issue for Ukraine.
"The issue of security guarantees is extremely important for Ukraine. Who can guarantee them? Who can ensure their fulfillment? What about territorial issues? How can Ukraine not only return to the situation of 2022, before the full-scale invasion, but also to the borders of 1991?" she noted.
As reported by Ukrinform, Donald Trump, who won the U.S. presidential election, was particularly interested in two points from President Volodymyr Zelensky’s victory plan that he presented to Trump during a meeting in September.