ISW: Kremlin’s demands toward ending war remain unchanged, amounting to Ukraine's surrender

The Russian leadership, including dictator Vladimir Putin, has repeatedly put forward conditions for ending the war that amount to Ukraine's complete surrender, and they have so far not changed these demands.

That’s according to the latest report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank.

The report recalled that on January 2, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated previous statements that the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian legislation prohibit holding presidential and parliamentary elections under martial law. Zelensky said the authorities would be able to consider the issue of lifting martial law only when the "hot phase" of the war is over.

Analysts also recalled that Ukraine’s legislation on martial law, adopted in 2000, provides that the authorities may end martial law “provided that the threat of attack or danger to the state independence of Ukraine and its territorial integrity has been eliminated.”

“Kremlin officials, including Putin, have repeatedly used deliberate misreadings of Ukraine's law and constitution to claim that Zelensky is an illegitimate president of Ukraine after Ukraine, adhering to the law and constitution, did not hold elections under martial law in 2024.[9] The Ukrainian government legally cannot abolish martial law while Russia continues to attack Ukraine,” the report says.

Zelensky, in turn, outlined the conditions that must be met to push Russia to agree to a “just peace.” He said that achieving a “just peace” in future talks requires a strong Ukrainian military, security guarantees from Western allies, and Ukraine's future membership in NATO and the European Union (EU) in order to deter Russia from renewed aggression against Ukraine. Zelensky added that Ukraine cannot achieve a just peace with a small military, such as "40,000 or 50,000 soldiers" – a reference to Russian President Vladimir Putin's initial demand during the Istanbul peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Spring 2022 that Ukraine demilitarize and only maintain a force of roughly 50,000 personnel.

“Putin and other Kremlin officials have repeatedly demanded conditions for ending the war that amount to Ukraine's complete capitulation, including the removal of the legitimate Ukrainian government and Ukraine's demilitarization. These demands have not changed since 2021,” the report said.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, President Zelensky said he would like to see specific diplomatic steps to end the war, and that this would not come at the expense of 30% of Ukraine's territories or at the expense of the Ukrainian population.