Ukraine’s reconstruction, recovery costs to be $486B over next decade – World Bank

Following an updated Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA3), as of December 31, 2023, the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is $486 billion over the next decade.

The relevant statement was made by the World Bank in today’s press release, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

“After almost two years of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an updated joint Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA3) released today by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank Group, the European Commission, and the United Nations currently estimates that as of 31 December 2023 the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is $486 billion over the next decade, up from $411 billion estimated one year ago,” the report states.

The highest estimated recovery and reconstruction needs are in housing (17% of the total), followed by transport (15%), commerce and industry (14%), agriculture (12%), energy (10%), social protection and livelihoods (9%), and explosive hazard management (7%). Across all sectors, the cost of debris clearance and management (and demolition where needed) reached almost $11 billion.

In 2024 alone, Ukrainian authorities estimate the country will need around $15 billion for immediate reconstruction and recovery priorities at both the national and community level, with a particular focus on supporting and mobilizing the private sector alongside restoration of housing, soft infrastructure and services, energy, and transport.

The RDNA3 highlights that while some $5.5 billion of this funding has been secured, from both Ukraine’s international partners and its own resources, about $9.5 billion is currently unfunded.

According to the RDNA3, direct damage in Ukraine has now reached almost $152 billion, with housing, transport, commerce and industry, energy, and agriculture as the most affected sectors.

Since the last assessment (RDNA2), the Government of Ukraine, with the support of its partners, has met some of the most urgent needs. For example, in the housing sector, according to the data from the Ukrainian government, $1 billion was disbursed toward housing sector recovery in 2023, with most being dedicated to the repair and reconstruction of damaged buildings. At the same time, 10% of the housing stock has been damaged or destroyed across the country due to Russian attacks.

In the transport sector, more than 2,000 kilometers of emergency repairs were made on motorways, highways, and other national roads.

In the education sector, local authorities rebuilt approximately 500 educational institutions and, since January 2023, the share of educational institutions with bomb shelters has increased from 68% to 80%.

A reminder that, in February 2024, Ukraine’s state budget received about $390 million from Japan under the World Bank projects related to social protection and agricultural recovery.