Intelligence network, sources in Kremlin: how Ukraine learns about Russia's military plans

“Just two days into the war, Russia realized things weren’t going as well as they hoped. So they [Russian leadership] made a plan called D-plus 30 and D-plus 60. We can say that we survived the first period and they failed. As we can see the steps and we can see what they are doing, we hope we can say that D-plus 60 will be unsuccessful as well,” Brigadier General Kyrylo Budanov told the Coffee or Die media outlet in an interview, the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine informs.

Budanov noted that he was not surprised that Russia's aggression against Ukraine had failed, adding that Ukraine was receiving a lot of information about Russia's intentions thanks to an extensive intelligence network, including sources in the Kremlin. Ukrainians have managed to penetrate many layers of Russia’s military, political, and financial sectors, using the information to its great advantage.

One example he offered was the recent strike in Berdyansk that destroyed a Russian Alligator-class landing ship as it sat at a dock. Thanks to its intelligence-gathering capabilities, Ukraine hit at the right moment to cause maximum damage.

“The rocket hit at the same time where the fuel trucks and the ammunition trucks came to the ship,” Ukraine’s intel chief said.

Having spies across Russia’s military and political landscape, including in Putin’s administration, has been extremely beneficial to Ukraine, Budanov said. And that human intelligence has been augmented by Ukraine’s rapidly increasing cyber intelligence capabilities, which Budanov claims offer a deep view into both Russian military plans and the country’s political and economic sectors.

“We have made considerable progress in cyber intelligence,” he said. Aside from information about the Russian military, Ukraine has been able to “see the circulation of Russian money very well.” “We will know where [the money goes], where [it is] accumulated and when they move [it]. We also can see what’s going on in the fuel area of Russia. And we also keep track of all the innovations of armaments,” Ukraine’s intelligence chief added.

He also pointed out the importance of intelligence assistance from the Allies. Top US intelligence officials recently testified before Congress that its intelligence sharing with Ukraine was “revolutionary” and unlike anything in recent memory.

In particular, Defense Intelligence Agency head Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier said the intelligence sharing was “revolutionary in terms of what we can do,” according to the Post. Paul Nakasone, director of the NSA, testified that “he had not seen a better sharing of accurate, timely and actionable intelligence in his 35 years of service.”

That ongoing battle, said Budanov, highlights how Russia’s war machine is not as vaunted as once believed. And that has led to Russian commanders needlessly sacrificing their troops.

“As we can see, the second army in the world is not that powerful as everybody saw it as the beginning. Despite considerable superiority in armaments, despite the complete supremacy in the air, they are suffering considerable losses. Their morale is going down. It’s very low. The military leadership of Russia is seeing their losses, they throw new forces into combat. The commanders don’t have enough time to plan the operation. So they throw their people for destruction and we destroy them,” he stressed.

Among Ukraine's success factors, the intelligence chief outlined low motivation of Russian soldiers, participation of foreign nationals in Ukraine’s Foreign Legion, as well as Ukrainian guerrillas fighting against Russian invaders.

On February 24, Russian president Putin started the invasion of Ukraine. Russian troops shell and destroy key infrastructure, massively fire on the residential areas of Ukrainian cities, towns, and villages using artillery, MLRS, and ballistic missiles.

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