Kwasniewski speaks of possible war scenarios in Ukraine

That’s according to ex-President of Poland (1995-2005) Alexander Kwasniewski, who spoke in an interview with Ukrinform.

The former Polish leader emphasized that he never had any illusions that Putin wants to take all of Ukraine under his control, not just a third of the country. As early as 2002, Kwasniewski recalls, Putin told him about his strategic goal – the reconstruction of Greater Russia, which the ex-president noted is difficult to imagine without Ukraine. Therefore, in the following years, he was aware that it was due to this that Russia exerted political and economic pressure, applied gas blackmail, and obstructed the signing of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement.

"However, I sincerely admit: it seemed to me that Putin is a pragmatist so he would not attack Ukraine, because that would look like madness. But he went for it anyway. Putin made a historic mistake, the price of which will be huge for Russia," Kwasniewski emphasized.

According to the former Polish leader, Russia's war against Ukraine may be a long one. On the one hand, Putin does not want to lose the war, so he will continue his aggression with varying intensity.

"On the other hand, Ukraine cannot surrender as Ukraine is now convinced of its rightness, it’s fighting for its land, for its rights, for the safety of its people. If the West is going to help, and it has pledged to do so, especially militarily, it should provide as many weapons as needed, and more. Taken this all into account, it means that the war could be long and exhausting," Kwasniewski emphasized.

He admitted that it is difficult for him to imagine a turning point in the war when both sides will be ready to make concessions and sit down at the negotiating table.

"I don’t believe that Putin is ready to make concessions and return to the pre-February 24 situation in conditions where Russia already has its presence in the south, when he opened a corridor to Crimea and gained control over the Sea of ​​Azov and Mariupol. At the same time, I cannot imagine any Ukrainian politician who would start talking about any territorial concessions to Russia. Therefore, a peaceful solution to the problem is completely impossible today," Kwasniewski noted.

Instead, he does not rule out a "conflict freeze at a certain point," which is not very good news.

"But if both sides, especially the Russians, admit that they have exhausted their power and forces, and need time to recover, then some truce initiative may appear. Given the depletion of resources, forces and means, it can also be accepted by the Ukrainian side. But we know what a frozen conflict is. In such conditions, it is difficult to develop or have any far-reaching plans, because today the conflict is frozen, and tomorrow it could be unfrozen. Of all the scenarios, this one seems to be the most possible one," the ex-president of Poland stated.

He emphasized that, as of today, he sees no chance of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, which would be guaranteed by the most prominent world powers.

Since February 24, Russia has been waging a full-scale war against Ukraine.