Russians highly unlikely to capture Donbas by September 15 – British intelligence

“Despite its effects to contain recent Ukrainian offensive action [in the south], Russia’s main effort in Ukraine almost certainly remain its Donbas offensive operation. Its principal axes of advance in the Donbas remain at Avdiivka near Donetsk City and, 60km to the north, around Bakhmut,” the UK’s Ministry of Defence posted on Twitter, citing intelligence data.

As noted, the political goal of the Donbas operation of Russian troops almost certainly remains to secure the whole of Donetsk region, which would enable the Kremlin to announce the “liberation” of the Donbas.

“Although Russia has had the most success in this sector, its forces have still only been advancing around 1km per week towards Bakhmut,” the Ministry says.

It is also underscored that Russian forces have highly likely repeatedly missed deadlines to achieve this aim.

“The Ukrainian authorities have claimed that Russian forces are now under orders to complete this mission by 15 September 2022. The force is highly unlikely to achieve this, which will further complicate Russia’s plans to run referendums on the occupied areas joining the Russian Federation,” reads the report.

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