Return of Azovstal's defenders: how Erdogan put Putin on spot

Five heroic commanders from Azovstal have returned to Ukraine from Turkey. We will not dwell on the questions of when, what and how. Over the past few days, dozens of articles have been written about this.

Instead, we are more interested in the "why".

Why did Erdogan do this? Obviously, he wanted to humiliate a weakened Putin and show him that I will do what I see fit, and you will not escape from the "submarine".

How will the Kremlin react to this? In fact, apart from the pathetic reaction of Peskov, the Russian dictator's press secretary, who managed to complain that "no one informed us about the decision to extradite Azovstal commanders to Kyiv," Russia has extremely limited room for maneuver in its relations with Turkey. According to political analysts, the most Moscow can do is to cancel Putin's visit to Ankara, which, according to Erdogan, is scheduled for August. Otherwise, Russia realizes the risk of losing the "Turkish window" to the world. Accordingly, it is possible to send its gas through Turkey, receive goods, bypassing sanctions, conduct money exchanges, travel, and so on.

Of course, Erdogan will trade on his position, he will do what is personally beneficial to him. Therefore, in this case, there is no need for excessive euphoria and high expectations. But at the same time, it just so happened that the interests of Kyiv and Ankara situationally coincided. And not only in the release of the Azovstal's prisoners, but also, in particular, in the issue of prolonging the grain initiative. The ships that leave Ukrainian ports are mostly vessels of Turkish intermediaries, who benefit greatly. So it's about income, about money. And Russia, as you know, is "wagging its tail," threatening to withdraw from the agreement, which expires in exactly one week on July 17. And Erdogan really doesn't like it. But even if Russia stubbornly stands its ground... There are rumors that Turkey is ready to enforce the "grain deal" without the Russians, thus putting Russia before a choice: either to attack Turkish ships and planes guarding the grain corridor and start a war with a NATO country, or to accept all the conditions.

So, Putin was stretched to the limit...

Turkey has returned the Azovs: how did it become possible, why did Erdogan do it?

"The situation with the release of Azovstal's defenders is another manifestation of Putin's further weakening," Volodymyr Fesenko, chairman of the board of the "Penta" Center for Applied Political Studies, told Ukrinform.

According to him, Erdogan is thus publicly demonstrating that he may not take Putin's position into account.

"Now Putin is more dependent on Erdogan and Turkey than vice versa. In addition, this is also a signal to Putin that Erdogan is extremely dissatisfied with Russia's position on the grain deal. Breaking this agreement is not in Turkey's interests. And Erdogan is demonstrating to the Kremlin in advance that the termination of this agreement will lead to further unilateral actions by Turkey that will be contrary to Russia's interests," the political analyst believes.

It is also likely that there are other topics on which the Kremlin has not fulfilled its promises to Turkey.

"In general, Erdogan is demonstrating that he is now playing a game with Russia and determining the rules of this game. And Moscow has swallowed this and actually agreed to it. Peskov has publicly stated that the return of the Azovs to Ukraine is a violation of the agreements, but this will not affect relations between Russia and Turkey," emphasized Mr. Fesenko.

Political analyst Ihor Reiterovych says that the idea that the Azov fighters should have stayed in Turkey until the end of the war is solely the position of the Russian side: "I am convinced that their return to Ukraine took place in strict accordance with the legal framework and international documents. If Erdogan was the guarantor or the main organizer of this, let's say, preliminary agreement, he could easily change his position and grant this permission. Which he most likely did. Therefore, in this context, first of all, we are talking about a change in the position of Erdogan, who thus killed several birds with one stone: he said "hello" to Putin and laid stronger foundations with Russia on various issues of interest to Turkey."

The expert believes that Erdogan's decision was largely influenced by at least four factors.

The first is that Russia has been actively blackmailing Turkey with a "grain deal" over the past few weeks.

"And it is being done in a very incorrect, rude way. They have actually begun to put forward demands that are not spelled out in the agreement that was signed between Russia, Turkey and the UN. Erdogan, of course, had to react to this somehow. But he did it not with a statement, but with concrete actions," the political scientist says.

The second factor... According to Mr. Reiterovych, there is also a certain consequence of what is happening in Syria: "According to some information, the forces co-opted from Russia struck at the forces that are directly related to Turkey, the so-called proxy forces. The Turks did not like it. They realize that formally, they have nothing to present to Russia, because everything is happening through intermediaries. So they decided to respond in a different way.»

The third factor is directly related to Erdogan. The elections are over in Turkey, he won, strengthened his power within the country, but...

"He needs to constantly keep Turkish society on its toes, to show that Turkey is improving its status and image. And what better way to do that than to kick Russia, especially since there are all the opportunities for that. After all, there is also a desire, since a significant number of Turks do not like Russians very much, although they tolerate them," the expert added.

The fourth factor is that Erdogan received an additional bonus in terms of negotiations within NATO at the Vilnius summit.

"And I think that his decision to some extent even influenced the fact that a preliminary agreement was reached on his personal meeting with Biden on the sidelines of the summit. For Erdogan, this is very important, given the issues that are relevant to Turkey today. Therefore, many different moments coincided in time," Mr. Reiterovych says.

But the main thing is that all this would not have been possible if not for the events of the last month that took place inside Russia. The Prigozhin March showed that Russia has weakened, and weakened to the point where it is no longer being reckoned with: "And this also played a role. Erdogan is closely monitoring the changing situation inside Russia. He realizes that Putin is as weak as possible today. Plus, he realizes that Russia is much more interested in Turkey than Turkey is in Russia. This is objective. Yes, the Turks are making very good money from Russia, but unlike Putin, Erdogan can afford such steps. And this was only confirmed by the fact that Moscow's reaction to the release of the Azov men was lukewarm through Peskov's mouth.

Erdogan, who has a similar type to Putin, that is, he is also an authoritarian who fights the opposition through various mechanisms, means, and so on, could not but take the opportunity to remind who the real leader is, at least in the Black Sea region.

"Another point is that negotiations on Karabakh are planned in the near future, in which Turkey will definitely take a key part as an ally of Azerbaijan. So, in this way, Erdogan has raised the stakes here as well," emphasized Ihor Reiterovych.

Political expert Yevhen Savisko drew attention to the fact that, according to the Ukrainian side, the return of our heroes took place without any demands from Turkish representatives.

"If this is the case, then two reasons for Ankara's move become apparent. The first reason is that Erdogan has decided to intervene in the struggle to divide the Russian Federation. However, he will do so not directly, but by providing the maximum possible military, political, diplomatic and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.

The second is the decline in Moscow's real influence, especially in those regions where Turkey is trying to maximize its influence: The Mediterranean, the Black Sea, Central Asia, and Africa. At Erdogan's August meeting with Putin, the latter will be presented with demands and wishes for what, how, and when Turkey wants from Russia. The consequences of this meeting will be visible in the near future. One of the indicators will be the amount of military assistance Turkey provides to Ukraine and its position on our country's accession to NATO," the expert believes.

International political scientist Maksym Yali argues that Putin has suffered a serious defeat in terms of information, because the Russian Federation built the whole myth of the Azov pseudo-Nazis on the basis of the myth of the alleged liberation of Ukraine from neo-Nazis, which is officially declared as one of the key goals of the so-called "SWO".

"When the most media commanders from "Azovstal" are released from captivity, it is, of course, a powerful slap in the face: both for Putin personally and for all Russians in general. Erdogan has demonstrated that if Putin continues to ignore him, does not take into account Turkey's national interests, he may take similar unexpected and painful steps again," the political scientist says. - Erdogan has made it clear that no matter what, the "grain deal" must be extended, because Ankara, which earns significant money from processing and transshipment of Ukrainian grain, is very interested in it. In the end, the whole world is also interested in the deal, given Ukraine's status as one of the key suppliers of grain to the international market."

Erdogan also received additional bonuses for himself.

"His actions were welcomed by Ukraine and NATO allies. And it is also in Erdogan's interest, especially on the eve of the NATO summit," says Mr. Yali. He adds that Erdogan decided to take such a step after the Prigozhin rebellion, which, although unsuccessful, significantly damaged Putin's image: "His image has been damaged in the eyes of the leaders of autocratic states, which, of course, include Turkey to some extent. Akela missed the mark," the political scientist emphasizes. - "Erdogan then decided that he could take this step without any serious consequences for himself. Erdogan successfully seized the moment."

Diplomat Vadym Triukhan also expressed an interesting opinion: "What Erdogan did is understandable. But why did he do it? I think Erdogan wants to show not only Russia, but also Europe and the United States that Turkey is a "golden share" that should be treated in a special way."

According to the diplomat, in fact, Erdogan wants to be remembered in history as the president who brought Turkey to the level of the world's key powers. It is not for nothing that on the eve of the NATO summit he came up with a new prerequisite for the ratification of Sweden's accession to the Alliance: for this to happen, the European Union must open its doors to Turkey.

"That is, Erdogan, not wanting to change anything in Turkey, because he is satisfied with the way the state works today, with the way the vertical of power is built there, wants to be remembered in the history of the Turkish people as the leader who brought the country into the European Union. And at the same time, as a leader who made the world reckon with Turkey. So I think this is not so much about Russia as it is about Turkey. Erdogan has reached a level where he can easily ignore and not pay attention to the Russians, doing what he needs to do," Vadym Triukhan emphasized.

"Grain deal", assistance with weapons and equipment: how and where else could Erdogan put pressure on Putin for our benefit?

"Indeed, we should pay attention not only to the return of the Azovs to Ukraine, but also to other statements by Erdogan, such as his support for Ukraine's membership in NATO, and Turkey's actions. In particular, this concerns the supply of Turkish weapons to Ukraine and the construction of a Bayraktar plant in Ukraine [confirmed by Minister Kamyshin]. Russian sources also confirm that if Russia withdraws from the grain deal, Turkey will continue to support it in its relations with Ukraine. This is indeed pressure on Russia. But this pressure is in Turkey's interests. It coincides with our interests situationally," says Volodymyr Fesenko.

According to him, Erdogan will not play only on the Ukrainian side. He is not going to break relations with Putin and Russia.

"But he wants to play a major role in these relations," Mr. Fesenko emphasized.

Ihor Reiterovych also emphasizes this and says that we, Ukrainians, should not get too excited about Erdogan's actions.

"Because the Turkish leader is now realizing his interest. The fact that this interest coincided with the extradition of Azov prisoners is a good story. But it is situational. It's good that we got our bearings in time and were able to use this story. But if he did this now, it doesn't mean that he won't do something different in the future. I mean, he can change his rhetoric, which he has done many times before. We just need to make the most of it now. And the most important topic for us now is the extension of the grain deal. We are currently considering the option of extending the agreement, but only at the expense of the Turkish side. This is a plus for us. We understand that when the ships leave, for example, from Odesa, and they are accompanied by the Turkish Navy, Russia will not be able to influence this situation in any way, no matter what it says or how much it pushes. The Russian Federation will not quarrel with the Turks, because it simply does not have the capabilities and strength to do so," the political scientist says.

And, of course, we need to use everything related to military and technical support from Ankara.

"This support is ongoing, it is not public. Turkey supplies Ukraine not only with Bayraktars, but also with many other things. Just this Saturday, I was driving along the highway and saw brand new armored Kirpi trucks being transported on tractors - these are Turkish vehicles for the transportation of personnel. Finally, this week there was also information that Turkey may supply Ukraine with its 155-mm howitzers," Mr. Reiterovych added.

Maksym Yali also mentioned the "grain deal": "Turkey is already putting full pressure on Russia on this issue. In parallel, there are talks about a possible supply of howitzers to Ukraine. However, we can go further. The Turks have a huge range of ammunition that we lack, as well as missiles of various ranges and armored vehicles. Turkey, as one of the key arms manufacturers, can significantly strengthen Ukraine's military potential. Moreover, pressure on Moscow can be put by closing the loopholes in the re-export of dual-use products through Turkey. And this is also in our favor. So, Erdogan has enough leverage over Putin."

And this is Vadym Triukhan: "Turkey can not only expand its assistance to Ukraine in the war with Russia, but it can also single-handedly challenge Russia. Last year, when the Russians were already withdrawing from the grain deal, Turkey undertook to solely guarantee the safe passage of civilian ships transporting grain from Ukraine. That was enough for Russia for a few days, and then they actually scraped their way back in and became part of the deal again. Although, in fact, even then it was necessary to take a tough stance and not to return to the so-called Russia-UN-Turkey and Ukraine-Turkey-UN agreements."

Now the situation may repeat itself, but it is unlikely that anyone will invite Russia back or agree to its return.

"I think that Russia is well aware of this. That's why Erdogan, among other things, decided to bring home five Ukrainian heroes to show Putin, who is going to Turkey, his strength."

For Putin, it's really a big dilemma now whether to go to Turkey, because after such a slap in the face, he will look like a weak leader, like a lame duck.

"Moreover, I would not rule out a situation in which Erdogan would arrest Putin and then hand him over to international justice. So, now a rather tight regional political knot has been spun. On the one hand, Putin cannot give up on Turkey because of exports, trade, air travel, and so on. On the other hand, if Putin swallows this slap in the face, he may lose his credibility among the current Russian political elites. Therefore, it seems to me that if Putin comes to Turkey, there will be a very tough conversation. Erdogan will put pressure on him, demanding that he abandon the armed aggression against Ukraine, and that he extend the grain deal and not violate its terms."

Finally, the fact that Erdogan supported Ukraine's prospects for NATO membership...

"In this way, he demonstrated his independence to the United States. And in fact, he supported the position taken by the eastern flank, as well as some members of the western flank of the European Union. Here, Turkey decided to go mainstream and become one of the 23 countries that are actually ready for Ukraine to be invited to join NATO. However, there is nothing surprising here. Most likely, Erdogan sees Ukraine as a close ally in the future, as a country that will repay his country politically, economically, and militarily for the support that Turkey has traditionally provided over the years, and especially over the past 16 months. Even though Turkey has not joined the sanctions regime against Russia, and even though Erdogan is still engaged in a dialogue with Putin," Vadym Triukhan summarized.

Myroslav Liskovych. Kyiv