Drones strike at enemy Russia: how does this affect course of war?

During the summer of 2023, dozens of drone attacks have already taken place on Russian territory. For example, only in the skies over Moscow and its region between June 21 and August 23, flying objects were recorded as many as 14 times (in fact, once every 4.5 days). And this is not even taking into account the "arrivals" at enemy military and strategic facilities located in other Russian regions, such as Kaluga, Novgorod, Rostov, and other regions.

The "cotton" in Muscovy and on the territory of Moscow itself continues and is gaining intensity. The situation for the Russian Federation will only get worse until the war is over," said Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.

The accuracy of the UAV attacks is evidenced, in particular, by videos on social media.

Meanwhile, the authorities of the aggressor country, through the mouth of Lieutenant General Konashenkov, constantly report that there is "no losses" that everything flying over their territory is successfully shot down/jammed by electronic warfare.

On the night of August 23, kamikaze drones again attacked Moscow, one of which successfully hit a building in the "business center" of the Russian capital, Moscow City (videos of this episode are circulating online). Officially, the Russian Federation, confirming the attack, noted that there were three drones in total, two of which were intercepted on the way to Moscow. And the third, the one that hit the skyscraper, was (attention!) "suppressed by electronic warfare." You can and should laugh, of course...

But in the end, what are the concrete results of these strikes, what effect does Ukraine get, and how much do they really affect the course of the war?

A pure lie: Russians "shoot down" drones only with towers such as "Moscow City"

"One of the discoveries of the Russian-Ukrainian PSYOPS is the 'artist of the original genre' Konashenkov. And the words "no losses" performed by the press secretary of the Russian Ministry of Defense have long become a meme. Therefore, when General Konashenkov broadcasts from the "box" that all Ukrainian drones were shot down by air defense, and then suppressed by the electronic warfare of the "air and space forces," even Russians understand that there were both "arrivals" and "pops," Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of military programs at the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI," comments to Ukrinform.

The expert says it is clear that some UAVs are lost during air operations. To a certain extent, it should be so. Already at the planning stage, taking into account intelligence data, some vehicles are assigned to become targets for enemy air defense - to expose and distract it, and, if possible, to destroy it.

"Are such missions always crowned with complete success? No, they don't. This is natural - in the course of operations, tactics are practiced and the means of destruction are improved. We are doing everything for the first time, and every "boom" is both factory and state testing of munitions. In real combat conditions. Each attack is based on the experience of the previous ones. And each one is more daring, more unexpected, more hurtful to the enemy than the previous ones," says Mr. Lakiychuk.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, military and political observer at the Information Resistance group: "Of course, the Russian Defense Ministry is constantly lying. There are "arrivals" and they are successful. Moreover, the regularity with which drone strikes take place on enemy territory no longer allows Ukraine to remain silent and claim that it has nothing to do with it," the military analyst points out. - "But as for me, they are perfectly "shooting down" these drones... with the Moscow City towers. They shoot them down perfectly well with strategic aircraft. They are good at shooting down drones with their optical-mechanical plants, oil bases, and so on. It was necessary to shoot down a drone so effectively within a day's difference [we are talking about the incidents that took place on July 31 and August 1] that it hit the same tower, and almost the same floor [Moscow City].»

Seriously, though, these results demonstrate the overall impact of the war in Ukraine on Russian air defense.

"For a year and a half, the war has actually destroyed at least a third of Russia's short- and medium-range air defense systems. These are the systems that counter small-sized objects, such as UAVs. Another third of these complexes are now located in Ukraine, in the temporarily occupied territories," added Mr. Kovalenko.

Thus, for Russia itself, today, to secure its airspace, there is about a third of the number of modern short- and medium-range systems that were available as of February 23, 2022.

"And this is critically not enough to close the entire Russian airspace. It is not even enough to close the airspace of several Russian regions, not to mention the entire gigantic territory," emphasized the observer of the Information Resistance group.

Well, we have found the answer to the first question. And we were not mistaken in our judgment: the rusists, at least in words, are trying to downplay the consequences of drone attacks. Moreover, according to the British TV channel Sky News, the Russian leadership is drafting a law prohibiting the posting of video and photo materials showing drone attacks and other consequences of shelling of Russian territory under the pretext that it would reveal military secrets. So if there are "no losses," as Konashenkov stubbornly claims, why all this? The answer is obvious.

At the same time, we are more interested in another thing: what specific effect or, as it is now fashionable to say, profit does Ukraine get from drone strikes on the aggressor's territory?

Each drone attack affects Russia's ability to continue the war against Ukraine to some extent.

According to Pavlo Lakiychuk, drone strikes on military targets deep behind enemy lines are an important component of hostilities.

"Back in September 2022, Generals Zabrodskyi and Zaluzhnyi emphasized in their programmatic article that one of the key advantages of the enemy in the war is the ability to hit targets throughout the depths of our territory. The Ukrainian commanders emphasized that the impunity of the Russians must be put to an end: "The task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for 2023 is to make these feelings (of their own vulnerability) sharper, more natural and quite tangible for the Russians and in other occupied territories, despite the considerable distance to the targets." That is why the Armed Forces of Ukraine are practicing their strikes on enemy military and military-economic targets to the maximum depth. Moreover, in conditions when our partners set the main condition for the non-use of weapons received from them on the territory of the Russian Federation - exclusively by their own forces. Powerful, creative, threatening..." - emphasizes the military expert.

Far to the east and north, enemy airfields, missile storage bases, ammunition depots, and oil depots are burning.

"It will be even more powerful - there are many targets there," added Mr. Lakiychuk.

How effective are such strikes? Our interlocutor suggests considering this on the example of the recent "cotton" at the airfield in Soltsy, where at least one Tu-22M3 long-range bomber that was launching missiles at Ukrainian cities burned down.

"Minus one [or two.] And from a drone that is three orders of magnitude cheaper. It burned down with the missile. One X-22 did not fly over Kyiv, Dnipro or Lviv. By the way, the missile was already suspended under the pylon of the plane, which means that the enemy bombers were at least six hours ready to take off for a combat mission, and they thwarted another missile attack on our cities."

But this is not the main thing.

"After the drone strike, the enemy was forced to relocate the planes even further north - to Murmansk. This means more difficulty in performing tasks, motor life, etc.. Yes, this drone attack did not completely protect Ukraine from enemy attacks, but it did make them much more difficult. Just like the attacks on Diaghilev and Engels in December last year."

Will regular strikes on strategic targets, on Moscow, force the enemy to pull air defense systems away from the front to protect them?

"Rather, it is not very noticeable - the area to be covered by air defense is too large; there are too many objects - they cannot be covered with all the SAMs that the rusists have. But we are making them nervous and react reflexively. The initiative has passed into our hands. Did Mr. Budanov promise the orcs "surprises" in Crimea and beyond? So there will be."

Oleksandr Kovalenko also assures that there is an effect. And not just one.

"Each such incident, each such raid affects to some extent Russia's ability to continue the war against Ukraine. For example, when we see a "strategist" aircraft explode - a missile-carrying bomber, such as a Tu-22M3 or Tu-95MS - we know that, first of all, Russians can no longer build these aircraft, - says the analyst. - The second point is that these aircraft are involved in strikes on the territory of Ukraine with X-22 and X-555 missiles. So, fewer carriers means fewer opportunities to strike."

By the way, sources in the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine confirmed to Ukrinform that a Russian bomber was destroyed and four others were damaged in recent drone attacks on Soltsy, Novgorod region, and Shaikovtsy of the Kaluga region.

"Further, if an incident occurs in the office premises of a business center, such as Moscow City, which has already been attacked by drones three times, then, says Mr. Kovalenko, we need to find out who is behind these office premises. For example, the ministries that are directly involved in ensuring the war against Ukraine. So, for several weeks now, these ministries have not been able to work properly because of the attacks on their offices," added the observer of the Information Resistance group.

Journalists of the military publication Defence Express suggest that the strikes on the business center are intended to harm the drone industry in Russia. What are they talking about? It is known that this building is home to the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade, which oversees the production of Russian "Forpost" reconnaissance and strike drones. Meanwhile, the ASTRA media outlet published a photo on Telegram of government documents that were blown out of Moscow City in a blast wave...

What is known about the "Forpost" drones? It is a copy of the Israeli Searcher MkII drone, which Russia has been producing under license since 2012. In 2019, the Russian Ministry of Defense showed a modified reconnaissance version, and in 2021, a strike version that fires missiles and guided bombs. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have repeatedly shot down "Forposts" before and after the enemy's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

However, let's continue.

"If, for example, there are changes in flights, stoppages of flights at airports [and recently the Russians have been shutting down Moscow's Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports], it's not just civilian or commercial flights, it's also transport aviation, cargo that is delayed. Airplanes have to fly to other airports, which means they will spend more fuel, and the airport loses money because of delays of an hour or two, four or six," says Oleksandr Kovalenko.

All this together affects the financial situation and the airport's losses.

"If these losses exceed the costs of organizing such an attack, it is already beneficial," the expert emphasized.

"Moscow is the largest transportation hub of the Russian state, and all logistics chains, including air, are concentrated there. The modern economy must work smoothly. A delay of even one hour means tens of millions in losses. And sometimes hundreds. It is impossible to rebuild and redirect this, it takes years and even decades. It's also impossible to completely block the sky on the approaches to Moscow. So the next question is scaling. In total, in weeks and months, hundreds of millions can be knocked out of the Kremlin's pocket in this way. This is the real asymmetry in action," says Yigal Levin, an Israeli Defense Forces officer and military analyst.

Finally, if we are talking about an explosion at a production facility, an optical-mechanical plant [in the Moscow region], for example, this plant produces thermal imagers, guidance systems, and other optics. All of this affects the capabilities of warfare!

"So, each such incident affects not only the moral and psychological state of Russians, who feel that the war is near. But it also has a broader impact, both of a military-technical, economic, and direct military nature. Each such explosion, each such incident is a small contribution to the overall treasury of achievements on the way to victory over Russia," assures Oleksandr Kovalenko.

Will there be more "cotton" on the enemy's territory now? After all, why aren't dozens of drones still being used to strike Russia?

Mr. Kovalenko explains: "Let's look at the situation this way. Since the beginning of August, how many such incidents have already occurred, and what was the total number of these aerial objects? Indeed, it would be possible to gather everything for some kind of large-scale attack. Do we have the capability to organize such a massive, large-scale air raid? I think we do. But if this is not happening, there must be some reason for it."

According to the expert, the reason is, firstly, to disperse attention in different directions, along different trajectories from time to time, so that the Russians do not have a general understanding of where to concentrate air defense assets and where not to.

"Another point is intelligence activities. Apparently, all these small groups that are now carrying out these "raids" are also carrying out reconnaissance activities, thus creating a map of enemy air defense assets to understand where there are complexes, where there is protection, where there are some gaps, and so on," the military expert believes.

And when this map is more or less fully formed...

"It will be possible to use the gaps in Russian airspace more effectively. And do everything to ensure that the number of these incidents increases each time. Therefore, once again, each such strike brings its own benefits - either military, economic, or some other nature," Oleksandr Kovalenko summarized.

Myroslav Liskovych. Kyiv