In Kupiansk and Avdiivka, situation is consistently difficult, but not fatal

Recently, an alarming article appeared on the pages of Forbes, the main message of which is that the enemy plans to capture the city of Kupiansk, Kharkiv region, by March. They say that this deadline was not chosen by chance, given the presidential "elections" to be held in Russia in March.

"Successful completion of this task would be a significant gift to Putin from the Russian army on the day of the presidential election in Russia," Forbes writes, emphasizing that Russia has mobilized 500 tanks, up to 600 combat vehicles, many howitzers and about 40,000 soldiers.

And then there is the traditional one: that according to the Kremlin's plans, by the end of March, Donbas is expected to be fully controlled, starting with Avdiivka.

So what can we objectively say about the situation in these two areas, how dangerous is it? Do we have enough forces and resources to hold/repel the enemy's invasion, and what are the general forecasts?

KUPIANSK: THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE ARE HOLDING THE LINE, THE OCCUPIERS HAVE VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF CROSSING THE OSKIL RIVER

The enemy has been intensifying its attack on Kupiansk since late May - early June 2023, says Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political observer at the Information Resistance group. That is, the occupiers have been conducting an offensive in this area of the front for more than six months, with the catalyzing of their attempts starting in November. Although, in general, the Russians have been trying to regain control of Kupiansk since 2022, almost immediately after fleeing the city [referring to the Kharkiv counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in September-October 2022]

The current phase of the offensive involves units of the "West" military group, currently:

• personnel - 57,500;
• tanks - 750;
• ARMORED PERSONNEL CARRIERS - 1,250;
• cannon artillery - more than 700 units;
• MLRS - more than 200.

The enemy has also deployed a group to cover the border in the Belgorod region:

• personnel - about 12,500;
• tanks - 100;
• ARMORED PERSONNEL CARRIERS - 150;
• cannon artillery - 350 units;
• MLRS - 40 units.

"The enemy's forces and means in the Kupiansk sector, as you have noticed, are much greater than those described in the Forbes article that frightened many people. So, there is no need to sprinkle ashes on your head and shout "Everything is lost!" while waving your hands. "No!" Mr. Kovalenko emphasizes, "I repeat: the Russian offensive on Kupiansk has been going on for over six months. At the same time, the relative size of the "West" group of troops has not changed critically during this period. That is, the occupying forces are advancing in a state of regular compensation for losses. For example, in mid-December 2023, the "West" had about 740 tanks, and in mid-2023, the "Westerners" had almost 63,000 personnel."

In other words, Forbes not only failed to provide more or less reliable information about the enemy group, but also managed to overlook the fact that the Ukrainian Defense Forces have been successfully holding back the enemy's superior forces along the Liman-Kupiansk axis for more than six months.

"Yes, I will not hide the fact that the situation on this section of the front is consistently very difficult. But it is like this not only here, but along the entire contact line. And the only thing that the respected publication is absolutely right about is that all the actions of the Russian occupiers are now driven not by tactical or strategic expediency, but by political motives," says Oleksandr Kovalenko. "After the capture of the village of Krokhmalne [30 km from Kupyansk], the Russian leadership's reflex was triggered and they began to salivate profusely. They thought that the capture of a small, wiped out village on the sixth month of endless assaults would allow them to jump over their heads, and now the left bank of the Oskil River [15 km from Krokhmalne to the river] is already on the horizon."

However, to reach the left bank, they still need to capture Pishchane and crawl 6 km through a difficult, shelled landscape.

Today, there is nothing that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not prepared for in this theater of operations.

"Yes, the Russians are increasing their forces in this area, but the situation is not dramatic. It looks like attempts to make tactical moves in one direction or another, with fairly clear operational tasks in mind. And it is quite another thing to intercept the strategic initiative, when the enemy can concentrate a large group of troops without threats and deliver an operational-level ramming blow. There is no such thing there. The enemy simply does not have the strength," confirms Colonel Serhiy Grabsky, a reserve officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Our troops are conducting maneuver defense, which does not allow the enemy to launch an offensive, and destroy a large number of enemy vehicles, the expert emphasized.

"We need to understand that the enemy also has certain limits in terms of supplies, and therefore he is doing everything possible to create tactical advantages now, and only then, perhaps, think about some operational actions. But today it would be too early to say that "all is lost" and "betrayal"," added Mr. Grabsky.

Major Oleksii Hetman, reserve officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: "Crossing the Oskil River... The right bank is a high ridge, we have built a very powerful fortification there, there is a sufficient number of our artillery, which has already shot all possible enemy approaches to the river. That is why the fighting is heavy, but we should not assume that the Russians will be able to reach Kupiansk or Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, because to do so they need to force Oskil, and according to people who are fighting there, they have virtually no chance of doing so," the expert emphasized.

Oleksandr Musiyenko, head of the Center for Military Legal Studies, also emphasizes that the Kupiansk direction has been quite difficult since last summer.

"The situation on this section of the frontline has been escalating over and over again, and each time the Russians had a different goal," comments Mr. Musienko. - "If last summer the enemy's efforts were limited to forcing our command to redeploy more troops from the south to the Kupiansk area to put the Ukrainian offensive campaign in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia on hold, since the fall, when the enemy managed to intercept the initiative in the east, the Russian command has been setting its troops the task of capturing Kupiansk, reaching the Oskil River, and from there across the Liman to the north of Donetsk region.

Currently, the military expert says, the enemy is trying to build on the success from Sinkivka, Krokhmalne and Tabayivka in the direction of Pishchane.

"The goal is to conduct small flanking operations to catch our group in the area of Kupyansk. How dangerous is the situation? I will say this, there is no collapse of the front line, it cannot happen, given the trends that are emerging, what forces the enemy has already thrown and failed to achieve success. I don't think it will succeed either," emphasized Musiyenko.

AVDIIVKA: A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK FOR ALMOST 4 MONTHS NOW

First of all, Oleksandr Kovalenko draws attention to the fact that after the end of January 2024 in the Avdiivka area, Russian troops have not been able to achieve all the goals set by their command at the beginning of the offensive on October 10, 2023:

• seize control of the Avdiivka spoil tip;
• cut the railroad in the northern sector;
• capture the village of Stepove and advance on Berdychi;
• take fire control of the 0542 road from the northeastern sector;
• in the southwestern sector, to advance through Vodyane to the villages of Pivnichne and Tonenke and capture them;
• to establish fire control over 0542 from the southwest.

"Soon it will be the fourth month since the enemy grouping of about 45,000 personnel from several combined arms armies has been trying to break the defense of the small town, but to no avail. As of today, the Russians have managed to accomplish only the tasks of cutting the railroad and seizing the spoil tip," the expert emphasizes.

Avdiivka is a kind of political fetish target for the Russians.

"The occupiers needed Avdiivka as an "epic victory" on the eve of Putin's direct line on December 14, 2023. They needed to capture the city, install their "aqua fresh" [as Mr. Kovalenko calls the tricolor of the aggressor country] and the dictator would boast about it. He was not given such a gift. They didn't give him one by the second deadline, the New Year's Eve. Now they have a third deadline, on the eve of the so-called "elections," in which they need Putin to come out with some kind of "great victory," which, again, they see only Avdiivka as today," our interlocutor says.

The enemy has begun to change its tactics, focusing not so much on breaking through the defense in the field as on trying to start urban battles. Currently, Russians are trying to enter Avdiivka from the north, east and south. The most fierce fighting is developing in the following areas:

• from Krasnohorivka to Stepove by the forces of the 15th and 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army;
• from Krasnohorivka to Novobakhmutivka by the 132nd SepMRBr of the 1st Army Corps and the 30th SepMRBr of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army;
• from Krasnohorivka to Avdiivka by the 114th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the 1st Army Corps;
• from Vesele to Avdiivka by the 114th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the 1st Army Corps;
• from Kamianka in the direction of Avdiivka by the 114th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army;
• from Vasylivka in the direction of Avdiivka by the 114th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the 1st AC;
• from Vodiane, Spartak and Opytne, mainly "regulars" of the 55th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army;
• from Vodiane to Severne, the forces of the 55th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army;
• the so-called Volunteer Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade "Veterans" and the mobilization of the 1st Brigade of the 1st Army Corps are operating in the industrial zone.

"I have repeatedly said that Avdiivka will be much more difficult to defend than Bakhmut. Not because the defense is weaker there, or it is a weaker fortified area. On the contrary, no," emphasizes Oleksandr Kovalenko, "but there is more limited logistics there. And now the Russians are trying to use this to conduct their assault operations. After they advanced south of Avdiivka, it was clear that after a while they would have the opportunity to advance directly in the city itself, i.e. to start urban battles."

And this should be viewed rationally and with restraint. The Russians do not spare human resources and send them to such assaults around the clock, and our task is to destroy as much of this resource as possible.

"As long as we can afford to hold the position and destroy many more Russians, we will do so. Or we will move to a more favorable position. These are the two main emphases when we talk about Avdiivka. Yes, we will hold Avdiivka to the last, but the pressure exerted by the Russian occupiers today may allow them to advance," said the Information Resistance group observer.

What will be their results in a month or two? The expert doubts that the occupiers will be able to meet the third deadline: "45,000 people have been trying to capture a small town for more than three months... And in 2022, about 40,000 people reached almost Kyiv. That is the difference."

The main concern is whether Ukrainian forces will be able to leave Avdiivka in time if they do have to temporarily leave it. The main route through which they will leave Avdiivka, if such an order is necessary, is the 0542 highway.

"This is exactly the logistics I was talking about, which is why Avdiivka is more vulnerable than Bakhmut. This is one main logistics artery. At the time, even when Bakhmut was captured by 80%, there were still two logistics arteries, the 0504 and 0506 routes," added Mr. Kovalenko.

But in general, describing what is happening in Avdiivka, the expert again points to a difficult but not critical situation.

"The situation there has been consistently difficult for almost 4 months. It will become critical if the Russians capture the villages of Severne and Tonenke in the south. And if they capture the villages of Stepove, Berdychi and Semenivka in the northern sector. And when the 0542 road is not just under fire control, but will be shot at even with small arms. This will make it difficult to withdraw from Avdiivka. Or when, for example, the Koksokhim industrial area is completely captured and the 0542 route is cut through it. This will be a critical situation," the expert emphasizes.

He also mentioned the 9th quarter of Avdiivka, which is in a vulnerable position. This quarter, which the occupiers want to take control of, has high-rise buildings that serve as elevated positions.

"However, as of today, there is no threat to the garrison of Avdiivka, no encirclement, no blocking by the Russians. And judging by the enemy's rapidly changing tactics, the Russian command will be able to please their President Putin before the elections only with black bags with the corpses of Russian soldiers," assures Oleksandr Kovalenko.

And this is Oleksandr Musiyenko: "Do we have enough resources in the Avdiivka sector? Well, the situation there is complicated, but it definitely does not look fatal. If we compare the Russian offensive on Bakhmut and today's offensive on Avdiivka, there are some similarities. At the same time, the enemy did not use as much heavy equipment when attacking Bakhmut. Now the Russians are pushing into Avdiivka with all this and are losing a lot of tanks and armored vehicles."

According to him, the enemy has some tactical successes in Avdiivka, in particular, it is about advancing from the southern flank.

"And, of course, there are battles for the coke plant, which the enemy is constantly storming. Plus, Russian troops are actively using aviation and fpv drones. Do we have enough forces and means to conduct a defense operation in this area? It is not easy for our units there, they need reinforcements, more artillery, shells, and other weapons. "But they are holding on," the expert emphasizes, "moreover, based on the number of losses Russian troops have already suffered and how our troops have been holding back this invasion for almost 4 months and continue to do so 24/7, preventing the enemy from developing the pace of the operation, from advancing further... The Ukrainian Armed Forces have largely fulfilled the task of defending this city. However, it is not only about defense. For example, soldiers of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade named after Major General Marko Bezruchko sometimes resort to local counterattacks, regaining some firing positions."

In general, Mr. Musiyenko says, despite numerous enemy attacks and difficult conditions, our forces managed to stabilize the situation. By the way, the ratio of losses in the battles for Avdiivka is 1:12 in our favor.

FORECAST: THE ENEMY'S OFFENSIVE WILL LAST UNTIL SPRING, AND THEN A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY OPEN FOR THE AFU

Recently, the head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, said that a major Russian offensive could last until spring. And experts agree with him.

According to Yevhen Dykyi, an ATO veteran and former company commander of the Aidar battalion, the Russians do not have the reserves and resources to advance for a long time, even at the current pace.

"We're not talking about any strategic breakthroughs, attacks on Kyiv or Kharkiv. But even for that "creeping" offensive on Avdiivka and Kupiansk, the occupiers will have enough forces until spring," the military suggested.

In his opinion, a window of opportunity will open for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the spring. But whether Ukraine will be able to use it depends on whether there will be someone to attack and whether we will have a normal supply of weapons.

"If we have a replenishment in the spring and resume supplying ammunition, then in terms of the state of our enemy, we will not only have the opportunity to attack, but we will have an urgent need to attack," Mr. Dykyi said.

It is better not to miss windows of opportunity at all, as it happened in 2022, according to the expert.

"We could have had a window of opportunity to finish off the occupiers back in 2022. But, unfortunately, not enough iron was delivered in time... The window of opportunity closed after mass mobilization in Russia, and a completely different war began. The next window will open this spring. But whether we will be ready depends on our mobilization and the U.S. Congress," said Dykyi.

A similar forecast was voiced by Oleksandr Musienko. In his opinion, Russian troops are now at the peak of their offensive capabilities. They should not expect anything more.

"They have already used everything they could, and this period before the elections in Russia, that is, in the next month and a half, will be extremely tense. And then the situation will go downhill. Simple math works here. If we count the offensive activity by month since February 2022, the maximum number of months when the enemy was on the offensive in good conditions was up to 5 months."

Russians have been advancing on Avdiivka since October.

"So I predict that we should expect a decline by the end of March. And during this period, it is important for us to hold out, to hold the line. As I see it now, the most the aggressor can hope for is some tactical success in some parts of the frontline. It is possible that it will be in Kupiansk and Avdiivka. However, and this is the main thing, we are definitely not talking about an operational and strategic success with access to the Oskil River, the Liman, the capture of the north of Donetsk region, and so on," the military expert emphasizes.

Regarding the window of opportunity for the Armed Forces of Ukraine that will open in the spring: "At first, we will be talking about tactical actions that can lead to the development of operational success in the future. But only if our partners continue to support us steadily and at the proper level with financial and weapons support, and if the US Congress finally votes for an aid package."

The expert says that if Germany were to provide us with Taurus missiles, if we were to receive enough F-16s with missiles with a range of 300-500 km from our partners, we would have a component for air support of our contingent, which could operate, for example, in the left-bank Kherson region towards the administrative border with the temporarily occupied Crimea.

"This is what can happen. In addition, we could improve our situation in the east, for example, recapture some settlements and villages, and drive the enemy from certain heights. This is possible. Will all this translate into operational success? Once again, it will depend on the partners. There were a lot of statements and promises, so the mood is cautiously optimistic," summarized Musiyenko.

Myroslav Liskovych. Kyiv