Russia's strikes on Ukraine and nuclear rhetoric likely aimed at deterring Western aid - ISW

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said this in its new report, according to Ukrinform.

Experts remind that Russia targeted Kyiv City during the February 7 strike for the third time thus far in 2024, notably coinciding with EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell’s visit to Kyiv. Borrell arrived in Kyiv on February 6 to discuss EU military aid and continued support to Ukraine. Russia has previously targeted Kyiv City during high-level foreign visits, such as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s visit in April 2022.

“Russia likely therefore purposefully conducted this strike series and targeted Kyiv City to achieve informational effects in the EU and the collective West,” the report says.

Experts note that Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev continued his “nuclear saber-rattling rhetoric” likely aimed in part at deterring Western aid to Ukraine. Medvedev claimed on February 7 that Russia has repeatedly “underscored” that it’s “plans” do not include any conflict “with NATO and EU member states.” Medvedev stated that NATO’s military budget and population are significantly larger than Russia’s, so that if a war were to break out between Russia and NATO, Russia would have to respond “asymmetrically” by using “ballistic and cruise missiles carrying special warheads” — referring to nuclear warheads — resulting in an “apocalypse.”

The ISW note that Kremlin officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, have recently and consistently rhetorically threatened NATO member states, and Kremlin-affiliated actors appear to be attempting to sow instability and set information conditions for possible future Russian aggressive actions against various European states.

“Kremlin officials and pundits have consistently threatened to use nuclear weapons against NATO members, and ISW continues to assess that this nuclear rhetoric is aimed at deterring Western aid to Ukraine,” experts said.

As reported by Ukrinform, according to White House National Security Council Coordinator John Kirby, the Russians are aware that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are gradually running out of their ammunition amid a lack of aid from the United States and are trying to use the moment to launch more attacks on Ukrainian positions and cities.