Russia preparing for large-scale conventional conflict with NATO - ISW

22.03.2024 01:27

Ukrinform

Several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited.

That's according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrinform reports.

ISW believes that Putin is likely attempting to set conditions to stabilize Russia’s long-term financial position at a higher level of government expenditure. The International Monetary Fund assessed that Russia's GDP will grow by 2.6 percent in 2024 and reported that Russia's GDP grew faster than all Group of Seven (G7) countries' economies in 2023.

The timeline for the reconstitution of a significant Russian conventional military threat depends heavily on the financial resources Putin is willing to put against military efforts. He likely understands that financial crackdowns against wealthy industrialist siloviki (Russian strongmen with political influence) could risk the political rapport Putin has built with them and is trying to mitigate those consequences.

The report emphasizes that Putin's attempts to set conditions to stabilize Russia's economy and finances are most likely part of Russian financial and domestic preparations for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO and not just for a protracted war in Ukraine.

The Russian military continues to undertake structural reforms to simultaneously support the war in Ukraine while expanding Russia's conventional capabilities in the long term in preparation for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO, the report said.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu earlier outlined several ongoing efforts to bolster Russia's conventional military capabilities, "more likely as part of Russia's long-term effort to prepare for a potential conventional war with NATO than as part of the war against Ukraine."

ISW believes that Russia currently lacks the manpower, military infrastructure, and training capacity to properly staff several entirely new divisions to army-level formations to full end strength in the immediate to medium term.

ISW analysts also added that ongoing personnel changes within the Russian Defense Ministry might be further indicators of Russia's preparations for a conflict in the long term.